The head-to-head counts 39 recorded meetings since 2012: 9 to DC United, 19 to New York Red Bulls, 11 drawn, 40-61 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 4-4 in Major League Soccer. Against that, current ratings read 1407 and 1441, a 34-point margin, and the model splits the tie 41.0% / 26.9% / 32.1%.
73.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. DC United carries the largest share, 41.0%. Versus the 1500 seed: -93 and -59. Its point estimate is 1-1. DC United holds a 8.9-point edge on the next outcome. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.2%. Expected goals 1.68-1.58. Most and least likely outcomes are 14.1 points apart. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 511 and 544 matches. Result on the day: 2-1. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The underlying rates are near-identical — attack 0.91 against 0.90, defence 1.30 against 1.25. New York Red Bulls's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 45.6%. The four component numbers read 0.91, 1.30, 0.90, 1.25. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
DC United: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; six goals scored, ten conceded. Latest: a 4-0 defeat away to Inter Miami on 10 October.
Against Inter Miami in Major League Soccer, DC United scored zero and conceded four on 10 October; the away from home result was 0-4. DC United's away from home game on 27 September (Major League Soccer) ended 3-3 against Vancouver Whitecaps, with three goals for and three against. On 19 September, Charlotte faced DC United in Major League Soccer: DC United lost 1-2 at home, having scored one and conceded two. Major League Soccer, 12 September brought a home meeting with Atlanta United FC; DC United drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. DC United hosted Columbus Crew on 9 September (Major League Soccer) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded.
New York Red Bulls: three wins and two defeats over five games; six goals scored, six conceded. Latest: a 4-1 win at home to San Diego on 10 October.
4-1 was New York Red Bulls's result against San Diego on 10 October (Major League Soccer), playing at home; New York Red Bulls won, with four scored to one conceded. The 30 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired New York Red Bulls with St. Louis City. New York Red Bulls lost 0-3 at home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against New York City FC (Major League Soccer), New York Red Bulls finished 1-0 on 18 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 12 September: New York Red Bulls won 1-0 against Columbus Crew away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Los Angeles FC in Major League Soccer, New York Red Bulls scored zero and conceded two on 10 September; the away from home result was 0-2.
Earlier results between these sides included a 4-4 draw at New York Red Bulls on 22 April and a 2-0 away win for New York Red Bulls on 24 May 2025.
After the match
DC United edged past New York Red Bulls 2-1 at Audi Field, Washington, District of Columbia on 14 October 2026. Tai Baribo opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 5 minutes for DC United to make it 1-0. Silvan Hefti added to the tally 50 minutes into the game for DC United, set up by Tai Baribo, to make it 2-0. Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting pulled one back 71 minutes into the game for New York Red Bulls, set up by Emil Forsberg, to make it 1-2. Lucas Bartlett (68') was sent off. Devin Padelford (19'), Lucas Bartlett (22'), Jackson Hopkins (29'), Dylan Nealis (67') and Ronald Donkor (73') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make New York Red Bulls slightly the stronger side, by 34 rating points over DC United, even though it was DC United who won this one. The card tally for DC United was two yellow cards and one red card. three changes were recorded for DC United. New York Red Bulls: three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for New York Red Bulls.