On file: 19 previous meetings dating to 2017, 25-35 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-3 in Major League Soccer. History aside, the live ratings of 1352 and 1417 drive a 36.0% / 28.0% / 36.0% distribution.
Behind them are 516 and 354 rated matches. Raw profiles are 0.78 and 1.40 against 0.96 and 1.18. The three outcomes sit within 8.0 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. 65 points of rating separation. Final score: 0-3. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.4%. Versus the 1500 seed: -148 and -83. Top of the distribution: CF Montreal, 36.0%. The higher rating expects 50.0% of the points, the lower 50.0%. Expected goals 1.36-1.81. The top two outcomes are within 0.0 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Win-or-lose totals 72.0%; the draw takes the rest. There is no trade-off to weigh: Atlanta United FC scores at the higher rate (0.96 to 0.78) and concedes at the lower (1.18 to 1.40).
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
CF Montreal's previous five results comprised one win and four defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 8 conceded. Toronto FC were their latest opponents, away on 10 October: a 2-1 defeat.
CF Montreal visited Toronto FC on 10 October (Major League Soccer) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. FC Cincinnati travelled to face CF Montreal (Major League Soccer) on 26 September. For CF Montreal, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed. 0-2 was CF Montreal's result against Columbus Crew on 19 September (Major League Soccer), playing at home; CF Montreal lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 13 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired CF Montreal with Colorado Rapids. CF Montreal lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Charlotte (Major League Soccer), CF Montreal finished 1-2 on 9 September. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition.
six goals for and eight against accompanied Atlanta United FC's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings. A 3-1 defeat at home to FC Cincinnati (10 October) was their most recent result.
FC Cincinnati travelled to face Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer) on 10 October. For Atlanta United FC, the score was 1-3: one goal scored, three allowed. 2-2 was Atlanta United FC's result against New York City FC on 26 September (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Atlanta United FC drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 20 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Atlanta United FC with Portland Timbers. Atlanta United FC won 1-0 away from home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against DC United (Major League Soccer), Atlanta United FC finished 0-0 on 12 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 9 September: Atlanta United FC lost 2-3 against Orlando City SC at home in Major League Soccer, scoring two goals and allowing three.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 3-1 home win for Atlanta United FC on 2 May and a 1-1 draw at CF Montreal on 9 August 2025.
After the match
Atlanta United FC comfortably beat CF Montreal 3-0 at Saputo Stadium, Montreal on 14 October 2026. Miguel Almirón opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for Atlanta United FC, set up by Elías Báez, to make it 1-0. Giuliano Galoppo added to the tally in the 41st minute for Atlanta United FC to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Atlanta United FC extended the lead through Breel Embolo 60 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. Lucas Hoyos (58'), Olger Escobar (83') and Fafà Picault (91') were booked. CF Montreal: one yellow card. CF Montreal made five changes. Atlanta United FC: two yellow cards. Atlanta United FC made five changes. A clean sheet for Atlanta United FC.