On file: 24 previous meetings dating to 2015, 38-39 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-3 in Major League Soccer. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1451 and 1536 — 85 points — for a 33.5% / 27.3% / 39.2% split.
The model gives 72.7% to someone winning. Orlando City SC leads the distribution by 5.7 points over Toronto FC. The higher rating expects 52.9% of the points, the lower 47.1%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 526 and 415 matches. Result on the day: 3-3. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-2 highest at 6.4%. Top of the distribution: Orlando City SC, 39.2%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 42.3% / 26.6% / 31.0%. That one did not come off. The four component numbers read 1.03, 1.31, 1.55, 1.54. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 2-2. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.55 to 1.03 says Orlando City SC, 1.31 to 1.54 says Toronto FC. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -49 and +36.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Toronto FC's previous five results comprised two wins and three defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 10 conceded. CF Montreal were their latest opponents, at home on 10 October: a 2-1 win.
Toronto FC hosted CF Montreal on 10 October (Major League Soccer) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Nashville SC hosted Toronto FC (Major League Soccer) on 27 September. For Toronto FC, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 1-3 was Toronto FC's result against St. Louis City on 20 September (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Toronto FC lost, with one scored to three conceded. The 12 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Toronto FC with Orlando City SC. Toronto FC lost 0-3 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing at home against Nashville SC (Major League Soccer), Toronto FC finished 2-1 on 9 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition.
Orlando City SC came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring 13 goals and conceding 12. On 10 October, Orlando City SC recorded a 3-2 win hosting Columbus Crew; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Toronto FC on 12 September.
The 10 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Orlando City SC with Columbus Crew. Orlando City SC won 3-2 at home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Philadelphia Union (Major League Soccer), Orlando City SC finished 2-4 on 26 September. Their score comprised two goals, against four from the opposition. 19 September: Orlando City SC lost 2-4 against New England Revolution away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring two goals and allowing four. Against Toronto FC in Major League Soccer, Orlando City SC scored three and conceded zero on 12 September; the at home result was 3-0. Orlando City SC's away from home game on 9 September (Major League Soccer) ended 3-2 against Atlanta United FC, with three goals for and two against.
The last two recorded meetings were a 3-0 home win for Orlando City SC on 12 September and a 4-2 home win for Toronto FC on 18 October 2025.
After the match
Toronto FC and Orlando City SC drew 3-3 at BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario on 14 October 2026. Lewis Morgan opened the scoring in the 26th minute for Toronto FC, set up by Theo Corbeanu, to make it 1-0. Martin Ojeda levelled it from the penalty spot 46 minutes into the game for Orlando City SC to make it 1-1. Toronto FC regained the lead through Theo Corbeanu 49 minutes into the game, set up by Dániel Sallói, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Orlando City SC drew level through Antoine Griezmann 76 minutes into the game, set up by Iago Teodoro, to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Orlando City SC took the lead through Daryl Dike late on, in the 83rd minute, set up by Iván Angulo, to make it 3-2. Matheus Pereira de Souza scored the 6th goal for Toronto FC late on, in the 89th minute as they drew level to make it 3-3. Alonso (66'), Benjamin Kuscevic (75'), Vinicius Nogueira (82'), Robin Lucius Fraser (85') and Richie Laryea (94') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Orlando City SC are 85 points stronger than Toronto FC. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. four yellow cards went to Toronto FC. Toronto FC: three substitutions. Orlando City SC picked up one yellow card. Orlando City SC: three substitutions. The scoring record shows one lead change.