On file: 9 previous meetings dating to 2022, 15-17 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-3 in Major League Soccer. Currently 1490 against 1553 — a 36.4% / 27.9% / 35.7% split.
The model's preferred outcome is Columbus Crew at 36.4%. The top two outcomes are within 0.7 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 7.8% leads, but only just. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 538 and 172 rated matches respectively. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -10 and +53. The higher-rated side expects 49.7% of the points; the other side 50.3%. Expected goals sit at 1.87 against 1.99. Higher rating: the away side. A decisive result carries 72.1% against 27.9% for the draw. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 63 points. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Raw profiles are 1.19 and 1.16 against 1.27 and 1.06. As a single number the model says 1-1. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The forecast we stored before the match was 37.7% / 27.6% / 34.6%. It landed.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
seven goals for and seven against accompanied Columbus Crew's two wins and three defeats across five outings. A 3-2 defeat away to Orlando City SC (10 October) was their most recent result.
Columbus Crew's away from home game on 10 October (Major League Soccer) ended 2-3 against Orlando City SC, with two goals for and three against. On 27 September, Inter Miami faced Columbus Crew in Major League Soccer: Columbus Crew won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one. Major League Soccer, 19 September brought an away meeting with CF Montreal; Columbus Crew won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Columbus Crew hosted New York Red Bulls on 12 September (Major League Soccer) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. DC United hosted Columbus Crew (Major League Soccer) on 9 September. For Columbus Crew, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed.
Charlotte came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring ten goals and conceding eight. A 3-2 win at home to FC Dallas (10 October) was their most recent result.
The 10 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Charlotte with FC Dallas. Charlotte won 3-2 at home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer), Charlotte finished 0-1 on 26 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 19 September: Charlotte won 2-1 against DC United away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against FC Cincinnati in Major League Soccer, Charlotte scored three and conceded three on 12 September; the away from home result was 3-3. Charlotte's away from home game on 9 September (Major League Soccer) ended 2-1 against CF Montreal, with two goals for and one against.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 3-1 home win for Charlotte on 15 August and a 3-2 home win for Charlotte on 24 May 2025.
After the match
Columbus Crew beat Charlotte 3-1 at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, Columbus on 14 October 2026. Idan Toklomati Jorno opened the scoring in the 17th minute for Charlotte to make it 1-0. Brais Méndez levelled it in the 28th minute for Columbus Crew, set up by Santiago Rodriguez, to make it 1-1. Anass Zaroury put Columbus Crew in front 63 minutes into the game, set up by Mohamed Farsi, to make it 2-1. Taha Habroune added to the tally 65 minutes into the game for Columbus Crew to make it 3-1. Malte Amundsen (69') and Patrick Schulte (72') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Charlotte slightly the stronger side, by 63 rating points over Columbus Crew, even though it was Columbus Crew who won this one. The card tally for Columbus Crew was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Columbus Crew. Charlotte: five substitutions. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. The winners, Columbus Crew, had been behind.