Across 21 recorded meetings back to 2017 the split is 10-5-6 in Minnesota United FC's favour on wins, 29-26 on goals. The last was 2025, 3-1 in Major League Soccer. The live ratings are 1476 and 1512, giving 40.7% / 27.0% / 32.3%.
Top of the distribution: Minnesota United FC, 40.7%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.24/1.43 and 0.88/0.90. A 8.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 54.2% to 45.8%. Before kickoff our model had this at 41.1% / 26.9% / 32.0%. The match did not follow it. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -24 and +12. Higher rating: the away side. Expected goals come out at 1.65 to 1.70. Between best and worst outcome there is 13.7 points of daylight. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Each side owns one half of the argument — Minnesota United FC the scoring rate at 1.24, Houston Dynamo the conceding rate at 0.90. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 9.8% leads, but only just. Someone wins 73.0% of the time by this model.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Minnesota United FC's previous five results comprised five defeats. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 17 conceded, with no wins. Seattle Sounders were their latest opponents, away on 27 September: a 3-1 defeat.
1-3 was Minnesota United FC's result against Seattle Sounders on 27 September (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Minnesota United FC lost, with one scored to three conceded. The 20 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Minnesota United FC with Los Angeles Galaxy. Minnesota United FC lost 2-3 at home, netting two goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against St. Louis City (Major League Soccer), Minnesota United FC finished 2-4 on 13 September. Their score comprised two goals, against four from the opposition. 10 September: Minnesota United FC lost 1-2 against FC Dallas at home in Major League Soccer, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Portland Timbers in Major League Soccer, Minnesota United FC scored four and conceded five on 6 September; the away from home result was 4-5.
Houston Dynamo came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring four goals and conceding six, failing to score in three of those games. On 27 September, Houston Dynamo recorded a 2-0 defeat hosting Sporting Kansas City.
Major League Soccer, 27 September brought a home meeting with Sporting Kansas City; Houston Dynamo lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. Houston Dynamo hosted FC Cincinnati on 20 September (Major League Soccer) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. San Jose Earthquakes hosted Houston Dynamo (Major League Soccer) on 13 September. For Houston Dynamo, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 2-1 was Houston Dynamo's result against Real Salt Lake on 10 September (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Houston Dynamo won, with two scored to one conceded. The 5 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Houston Dynamo with Charlotte. Houston Dynamo drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero.
The last two recorded meetings were a 3-1 home win for Minnesota United FC on 26 June 2025 and a 2-0 home win for Houston Dynamo on 15 May 2025.
After the match
Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo drew 2-2 at Allianz Field, Saint Paul, Minnesota on 11 October 2026. Lyle Foster opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Houston Dynamo to make it 1-0. Kelvin Yeboah levelled it 48 minutes into the game for Minnesota United FC, set up by Morris Duggan, to make it 1-1. Marcus Caldeira put Minnesota United FC in front 78 minutes into the game, set up by Cherrion Valerius, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Houston Dynamo drew level through Duncan McGuire in the 92nd minute, set up by Nick Markanich, to make it 2-2. Mauricio González Carabalí (66') and Wil Trapp (82') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Houston Dynamo are 36 points stronger than Minnesota United FC. Minnesota United FC picked up two yellow cards. Minnesota United FC: six substitutions. Houston Dynamo: six substitutions. The scoring record shows one lead change.