The draw carries unusual weight here, 26.2% against 44.2% and 29.6%.
A 14-point spread sits between the two figures. In absolute terms: Charlotte 1.28/1.02, FC Dallas 1.30/1.20 on attack and defence. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Versus the 1500 seed: +64 and +78. Final score: 3-2. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 7.9%. The away side is rated higher. Logged in advance of kickoff — 40.4% / 27.0% / 32.6%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. The leading outcome clears the second by 14.6 points. Both figures rest on decent samples, 169 and 520 matches. xG: 2.28 to 1.80. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.30 to 1.28 says FC Dallas, 1.02 to 1.20 says Charlotte. The model gives 73.8% to someone winning. Spread across the three results is 18.0 points. Top of the distribution: Charlotte, 44.2%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 57.3% to 42.7%. Its rounded call is 2-1.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Charlotte: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; seven goals scored, six conceded. Chicago Fire were their latest opponents, at home on 26 September: a 1-0 defeat.
Charlotte hosted Chicago Fire on 26 September (Major League Soccer) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. DC United hosted Charlotte (Major League Soccer) on 19 September. For Charlotte, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 3-3 was Charlotte's result against FC Cincinnati on 12 September (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Charlotte drew, with three scored to three conceded. The 9 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Charlotte with CF Montreal. Charlotte won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Houston Dynamo (Major League Soccer), Charlotte finished 0-0 on 5 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition.
FC Dallas were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring nine goals and conceding five. On 27 September, FC Dallas recorded a 1-0 win hosting Los Angeles FC.
27 September: FC Dallas won 1-0 against Los Angeles FC at home in Major League Soccer, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Austin in Major League Soccer, FC Dallas scored zero and conceded zero on 20 September; the at home result was 0-0. FC Dallas's at home game on 13 September (Major League Soccer) ended 2-1 against Portland Timbers, with two goals for and one against. On 10 September, Minnesota United FC faced FC Dallas in Major League Soccer: FC Dallas won 2-1 away from home, having scored two and conceded one. Major League Soccer, 6 September brought a home meeting with Sporting Kansas City; FC Dallas won 4-3, a return of four goals scored and three conceded.
After the match
Charlotte edged past FC Dallas 3-2 at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte on 10 October 2026. Logan Farrington opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for FC Dallas, set up by Herman Johansson, to make it 1-0. Petar Musa added to the tally 64 minutes into the game for FC Dallas, set up by Santiago Moreno, to make it 2-0. Idan Toklomati Jorno pulled one back 70 minutes into the game for Charlotte, set up by Allan Saint-Maximin, to make it 1-2. Harry Toffolo levelled it 74 minutes into the game for Charlotte, set up by Idan Toklomati Jorno, to make it 2-2. Idan Toklomati Jorno put Charlotte in front in the 92nd minute, set up by Pep Biel, to make it 3-2. Osaze Urhoghide (79') and Morrison Agyemang (86') were booked. Charlotte: one yellow card. Charlotte made five changes. The card tally for FC Dallas was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for FC Dallas. Across the goals, the lead switched one time. The winners, Charlotte, had been behind.