17 meetings sit in the record, first in 2019, aggregate 26-20. The latest was 2026, 0-2 in Major League Soccer. The present numbers are 1383 against 1529, and the model turns that into 26.0% / 25.2% / 48.9%.
In absolute terms: Atlanta United FC 0.95/1.36, FC Cincinnati 1.44/1.63 on attack and defence. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Most and least likely outcomes are 23.7 points apart. FC Cincinnati carries the largest share, 48.9%. The forecast we stored before the match was 30.1% / 26.3% / 43.6%. It landed. The xG line reads 2.31 to 2.65. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -117 and +29. One edge each: scoring to FC Cincinnati (1.44 v 0.95), conceding to Atlanta United FC (1.36 v 1.63). The gap between first and second outcome is 22.9 points, FC Cincinnati ahead of Atlanta United FC. Point estimate: 2-2. It ended 1-3. 74.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. By expected share of the points: 38.5% and 61.5%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 350 and 274 matches.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Atlanta United FC came into the game with one win, three draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding seven. On 26 September, Atlanta United FC recorded a 2-2 draw hosting New York City FC.
New York City FC travelled to face Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer) on 26 September. For Atlanta United FC, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 1-0 was Atlanta United FC's result against Portland Timbers on 20 September (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Atlanta United FC won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 12 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Atlanta United FC with DC United. Atlanta United FC drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer), Atlanta United FC finished 2-3 on 9 September. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition. 5 September: Atlanta United FC drew 2-2 against Inter Miami away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring two goals and allowing two.
FC Cincinnati: two draws and three defeats over five games; six goals scored, 17 conceded, without a win. Latest: a 3-1 defeat away to CF Montreal on 26 September.
1-3 was FC Cincinnati's result against CF Montreal on 26 September (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; FC Cincinnati lost, with one scored to three conceded. The 20 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired FC Cincinnati with Houston Dynamo. FC Cincinnati drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Charlotte (Major League Soccer), FC Cincinnati finished 3-3 on 12 September. Their score comprised three goals, against three from the opposition. 9 September: FC Cincinnati lost 0-5 against Philadelphia Union away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring zero goals and allowing five. Against Nashville SC in Major League Soccer, FC Cincinnati scored zero and conceded four on 30 August; the away from home result was 0-4.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-0 home win for FC Cincinnati on 21 February and a 4-2 home win for Atlanta United FC on 25 May 2025.
After the match
FC Cincinnati beat Atlanta United FC 3-1 at Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta on 10 October 2026. Kevin Denkey opened the scoring 52 minutes into the game for FC Cincinnati, set up by Tom Barlow, to make it 1-0. Miguel Almirón levelled it 69 minutes into the game for Atlanta United FC, set up by Breel Embolo, to make it 1-1. FC Cincinnati regained the lead through Tom Barlow late on, in the 84th minute, set up by Kyle Smith, to make it 2-1. Kevin Denkey added to the tally in the 97th minute for FC Cincinnati, set up by Ender Jesús Echenique Peña, to make it 3-1. Teenage Hadebe (2'), Tomás Jacob (43'), Julian Malatini (88'), Tom Barlow (94') and Mauricio Amaro (94') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have FC Cincinnati 146 points stronger than Atlanta United FC. Every goal came after the interval. The card tally for Atlanta United FC was two yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Atlanta United FC. FC Cincinnati: three yellow cards. FC Cincinnati made five changes.