A draw is doing more work in this distribution than usual: 26.1%, with the two wins on 44.6% and 29.3%.
The tie closed out 1-0. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Between best and worst outcome there is 18.5 points of daylight. A 11-point spread sits between the two figures. Behind them are 50 and 46 rated matches. The Elo curve splits the expected points 57.7% to 42.3% here. 73.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 7.1%. The away side is rated higher. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +145 and +156. Reduced to one result that is 1-2. Most likely single result is Real Betis on 44.6%. Raw profiles are 1.30 and 1.07 against 1.76 and 0.99. Real Betis holds a 15.3-point edge on the next outcome. There is no trade-off to weigh: Feyenoord scores at the higher rate (1.76 to 1.30) and concedes at the lower (0.99 to 1.07). Logged in advance of kickoff — 54.1% / 23.9% / 21.9%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Expected goals 1.92-2.56. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Real Betis: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; 12 goals scored, ten conceded. Barça were their latest opponents, at home on 17 October: a 5-2 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 5-2 at home to Osasuna on 11 October.
2-5 was Real Betis's result against Barça on 17 October (La Liga), playing at home; Real Betis lost, with two scored to five conceded. The 14 October fixture (Champions League) paired Real Betis with Porto. Real Betis won 3-2 at home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Osasuna (La Liga), Real Betis finished 5-2 on 11 October. Their score comprised five goals, against two from the opposition. 20 September: Real Betis drew 1-1 against Deportivo away from home in La Liga, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Getafe in La Liga, Real Betis scored one and conceded zero on 17 September; the at home result was 1-0.
Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed Real Betis 10th after two matches and six points.
21 goals for and five against accompanied Feyenoord's five wins across five outings, keeping three clean sheets, an unbeaten run. A 4-3 win away to Telstar (17 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 7-0 away to Zwolle on 13 September.
17 October: Feyenoord won 4-3 against Telstar away from home in Eredivisie, scoring four goals and allowing three. Against Como 1907 in Champions League, Feyenoord scored three and conceded two on 14 October; the at home result was 3-2. Feyenoord's at home game on 10 October (Eredivisie) ended 2-0 against AZ, with two goals for and zero against. On 20 September, Utrecht faced Feyenoord in Eredivisie: Feyenoord won 5-0 at home, having scored five and conceded zero. Eredivisie, 13 September brought an away meeting with Zwolle; Feyenoord won 7-0, a return of seven goals scored and zero conceded.
Feyenoord stood 25th in the results-based Champions League table before kickoff, with three points from two matches.
After the match
Real Betis edged past Feyenoord 1-0 on 21 October 2026. Isco opened the scoring from the penalty spot 59 minutes into the game for Real Betis to make it 1-0. Mika Marmol (14'), Charles Vanhoutte (52') and Rodrigo Riquelme (86') were booked. Real Betis: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Real Betis. Rodrigo Riquelme was booked following entry for Real Betis in the 64th minute. Feyenoord: two yellow cards. Feyenoord made four changes. Real Betis finished with a clean sheet.