Prior record: 6-2-3 across 11 since 2013. Most recent 2025, 1-3 in Champions League. Against that, current ratings read 1858 and 1824, a 34-point margin, and the model splits the tie 51.6% / 24.5% / 23.9%.
A decisive result carries 75.5% against 24.5% for the draw. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Between best and worst outcome there is 27.7 points of daylight. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 9.0%. The match finished 2-2. A 27.1-point margin separates the top two outcomes. On expected goals the model has it 1.93 against 1.62. Its rounded call is 1-1. Versus the 1500 seed: +358 and +324. In absolute terms: Bayern 2.47/0.98, Arsenal 1.22/0.53 on attack and defence. On the Elo curve they expect 63.9% and 36.1% of the points. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The model's preferred outcome is Bayern at 51.6%. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 55.3% / 23.6% / 21.0%. The result went the other way. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 2.47 to 1.22 says Bayern, 0.53 to 0.98 says Arsenal. With 58 and 63 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Bayern's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 20 scored and 7 conceded, with no defeats. RB Leipzig were their latest opponents, at home on 17 October: a 6-1 win; their biggest win in that spell was 7-0 at home to Union Berlin on 18 September.
Against RB Leipzig in Bundesliga, Bayern scored six and conceded one on 17 October; the at home result was 6-1. Bayern's away from home game on 13 October (Champions League) ended 3-3 against Viking, with three goals for and three against. On 10 October, Augsburg faced Bayern in Bundesliga: Bayern drew 2-2 away from home, having scored two and conceded two. Bundesliga, 18 September brought a home meeting with Union Berlin; Bayern won 7-0, a return of seven goals scored and zero conceded. Bayern visited Elversberg on 13 September (Bundesliga) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded.
four points in two matches put Bayern 13th in the pre-match results-based Champions League standings.
Arsenal came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding four, keeping three clean sheets. A 1-0 win away to Nottingham (18 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Lille on 13 October.
Arsenal's away from home game on 18 October (Premier League) ended 1-0 against Nottingham, with one goal for and zero against. On 13 October, Lille faced Arsenal in Champions League: Arsenal won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero. Premier League, 10 October brought a home meeting with Leeds United; Arsenal won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Arsenal visited Brighton Hove on 19 September (Premier League) and lost 0-3; their goals totalled zero, compared with three conceded. Sunderland hosted Arsenal (Premier League) on 12 September. For Arsenal, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed.
Arsenal: 9th, six points, two matches in the calculated Champions League standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 3-1 home win for Arsenal on 26 November 2025 and a 1-0 home win for Bayern on 17 April 2024.
After the match
Bayern and Arsenal drew 2-2 on 21 October 2026. Eberechi Eze opened the scoring in the 25th minute for Arsenal, set up by Martin Ødegaard, to make it 1-0. Alphonso Davies levelled it in the 35th minute for Bayern, set up by Harry Kane, to make it 1-1. Harry Kane put Bayern in front from the penalty spot 61 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Arsenal drew level through Declan Rice late on, in the 82nd minute, set up by Viktor Gyökeres, to make it 2-2. Kai Havertz (13') and Ezri Konsa (39') were booked. Bayern are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Bundesliga, the 2026/27 DFB-Pokal and the 2026/27 Champions League. Arsenal are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Premier League and the 2026/27 Champions League. five changes were recorded for Bayern. Arsenal picked up two yellow cards. Arsenal: four substitutions. After coming on for Arsenal in minute 10, Eberechi Eze scored in minute 25. Viktor Gyökeres provided an assist following entry for Arsenal in the 68th minute. The scoring record shows one lead change.