The caveat comes first here. Shaktar has only 3 rated matches behind their number, so while the model returns 1718 against 1527 and a 71.9% / 19.0% / 9.1% split, that precision is not earned yet.
Higher rating: the home side. Before kickoff our model had this at 73.9% / 18.3% / 7.7%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +218 and +27. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 191 points. Attack/defence pairs: 1.77/0.95 and 0.99/0.96. Result on the day: 1-0. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Top of the distribution: Inter, 71.9%. Expected goals sit at 2.51 against 1.28. As a single number the model says 2-1. Outcomes span 62.8 points. Shaktar's side of that rests on 3 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. The gap between first and second outcome is 52.9 points, Inter ahead of the draw. Win-or-lose totals 81.0%; the draw takes the rest. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 9.1%.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Inter came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 16 goals and conceding ten. On 17 October, Inter recorded a 3-1 win visiting Bologna; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Parma on 10 October.
The 17 October fixture (Serie A) paired Inter with Bologna. Inter won 3-1 away from home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Club Brugge (Champions League), Inter finished 3-4 on 13 October. Their score comprised three goals, against four from the opposition. 10 October: Inter won 3-0 against Parma at home in Serie A, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against Roma in Serie A, Inter scored two and conceded two on 19 September; the away from home result was 2-2. Inter's at home game on 14 September (Serie A) ended 5-3 against Udinese, with five goals for and three against.
Inter stood 32nd in the results-based Champions League table before kickoff, with zero points from two matches.
Shaktar: one win and one draw over two games; four goals scored, two conceded, unbeaten. PAE AEK were their latest opponents, at home on 14 October: a 3-1 win.
Against PAE AEK in Champions League, Shaktar scored three and conceded one on 14 October; the at home result was 3-1. Shaktar's away from home game on 10 September (Champions League) ended 1-1 against PSV, with one goal for and one against.
four points in two matches put Shaktar 15th in the pre-match results-based Champions League standings.
After the match
Inter edged past Shaktar 1-0 on 21 October 2026. Carlos Augusto Lobaton opened the scoring 77 minutes into the game for Inter, set up by Henrikh Mkhitaryan, to make it 1-0. Alessandro Bastoni (68') was sent off. Oleh Ocheretko (36'), Marcus Thuram-Ulien (54'), Alessandro Bastoni (66'), Marlon Gomes (68') and Petar Sucic (72') were booked. 71.9% is Inter's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Inter: three yellow cards and one red card. Inter made five changes. Henrikh Mkhitaryan entered for Inter at 75 minutes and later provided an assist. Shaktar: two yellow cards. Shaktar made five changes. Inter finished with a clean sheet.