1691 plays 1600; the model splits it 59.7% / 22.6% / 17.7%. Como 1907 is ahead on each half — 1.48 to 1.23 in attack, 0.75 to 1.03 in defence.
Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 57.1% / 23.2% / 19.7%. It landed. Point estimate: 2-1. Behind them are 48 and 48 rated matches. Someone wins 77.4% of the time by this model. Scorelines above 8%: 2. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. It ended 4-1. Distance between the ratings: 91 points, wide on this scale. First to second is a 37.1-point step, Como 1907 over the draw. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. In absolute terms: Como 1907 1.48/0.75, Man United 1.23/1.03 on attack and defence. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 9.5%. Como 1907's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 71.1%. Outcomes span 42.0 points. 59.7% goes to Como 1907, the model's lean. The xG line reads 2.27 to 1.24. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +191 and +100.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Como 1907: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; seven goals scored, seven conceded. Fiorentina were their latest opponents, away on 18 October: a 3-1 win.
On 18 October, Fiorentina faced Como 1907 in Serie A: Como 1907 won 3-1 away from home, having scored three and conceded one. Champions League, 14 October brought an away meeting with Feyenoord; Como 1907 lost 2-3, a return of two goals scored and three conceded. Como 1907 hosted Roma on 11 October (Serie A) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Frosinone hosted Como 1907 (Serie A) on 20 September. For Como 1907, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 2-1 was Como 1907's result against Parma on 14 September (Serie A), playing at home; Como 1907 won, with two scored to one conceded.
three points in two matches put Como 1907 17th in the pre-match results-based Champions League standings.
Man United's previous five results comprised three draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 3 scored and 6 conceded, with no wins. Latest: a 1-1 draw away to Leeds United on 18 October.
1-1 was Man United's result against Leeds United on 18 October (Premier League), playing away from home; Man United drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 13 October fixture (Champions League) paired Man United with Atleti. Man United lost 0-2 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Tottenham (Premier League), Man United finished 1-1 on 10 October. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 20 September: Man United drew 1-1 against Fulham away from home in Premier League, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Man City in Premier League, Man United scored zero and conceded one on 13 September; the at home result was 0-1.
Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed Man United 18th after two matches and three points.
After the match
Como 1907 comfortably beat Man United 4-1 on 21 October 2026. Nico Paz opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for Como 1907, set up by Lucas Da Cunha, to make it 1-0. Anastasios Douvikas added to the tally 49 minutes into the game for Como 1907, set up by Nico Paz, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Como 1907 extended the lead through Nico Paz 57 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. Jacobo Ramón scored the 4th goal for Como 1907 76 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Kaiki Bruno, to make it 4-0. Joshua Zirkzee got one back in the 91st minute for Man United, set up by Amad Diallo, to make it 1-4. Andrey Santos (25'), Carlos Baleba (50'), Marc-Oliver Kempf (84') and Shea Lacey (86') were booked. Como 1907's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 59.7% for a win in this pairing. Como 1907 picked up one yellow card. Como 1907: five substitutions. Kaiki Bruno, on in the 69th minute, provided an assist. Man United picked up three yellow cards. The substitution total for Man United was five. Carlos Baleba entered for Man United at 46 minutes and later was booked. After coming on for Man United in minute 46, Amad Diallo provided an assist. Joshua Zirkzee scored in minute 91 following entry for Man United in the 67th minute. Shea Lacey, on in the 86th minute, was booked.