An unusually heavy draw share here at 27.1%.
39 points of rating separation. The away side is rated higher. Scorelines above 8%: 1. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. No scoreline stands out; 2-1 only leads on 9.1%. Spread across the three results is 13.1 points. Attack/defence pairs: 1.13/0.91 and 1.17/1.36. The xG line reads 2.28 to 1.44. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +66 and +105. Napoli sits 7.5 points above the next most likely result. Expected shares 53.7% against 46.3% on Elo. The tie closed out 4-3. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. Honours split: 1.17 forward for Bodø/Glimt, 0.91 back for Napoli. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 56 and 15 rated matches respectively. Logged in advance of kickoff — 42.5% / 26.6% / 30.9%. It landed. Someone wins 72.9% of the time by this model. Top of the distribution: Napoli, 40.2%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Napoli came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding five. On 17 October, Napoli recorded a 1-0 defeat visiting Venezia FC; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Frosinone on 10 October.
Venezia FC hosted Napoli (Serie A) on 17 October. For Napoli, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-3 was Napoli's result against Villarreal on 13 October (Champions League), playing away from home; Napoli lost, with one scored to three conceded. The 10 October fixture (Serie A) paired Napoli with Frosinone. Napoli won 3-0 at home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Fiorentina (Serie A), Napoli finished 1-1 on 20 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 13 September: Napoli won 1-0 against Bologna at home in Serie A, scoring one goal and allowing zero.
Napoli stood 32nd in the results-based Champions League table before kickoff, with zero points from two matches.
Bodø/Glimt came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding 11. A 1-0 win at home to Dortmund (14 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Sporting CP on 11 March.
The 14 October fixture (Champions League) paired Bodø/Glimt with Dortmund. Bodø/Glimt won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Bayern (Champions League), Bodø/Glimt finished 0-5 on 10 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against five from the opposition. 17 March: Bodø/Glimt lost 0-5 against Sporting CP away from home in Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing five. Against Sporting CP in Champions League, Bodø/Glimt scored three and conceded zero on 11 March; the at home result was 3-0. Bodø/Glimt's away from home game on 24 February (Champions League) ended 2-1 against Inter, with two goals for and one against.
Bodø/Glimt stood 24th in the results-based Champions League table before kickoff, with three points from two matches.
After the match
Napoli edged past Bodø/Glimt 4-3 on 20 October 2026. Matteo Politano opened the scoring inside the first minute for Napoli, set up by Leonardo Spinazzola, to make it 1-0. Jens Hauge levelled it in the 27th minute for Bodø/Glimt, set up by Sondre Fet, to make it 1-1. Napoli regained the lead through Scott McTominay in the 41st minute, set up by Kevin De Bruyne, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Bodø/Glimt drew level through Andreas Helmersen 62 minutes into the game, set up by Sondre Fet, to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Napoli restored the lead through Scott McTominay 75 minutes into the game, set up by Matteo Politano, to make it 3-2. Odin Lurås Bjørtuft (an own goal) added to the tally late on, in the 88th minute for Napoli to make it 4-2. Sondre Fet pulled one back in the 94th minute for Bodø/Glimt to make it 3-4. André Zambo Anguissa (48'), Noa Lang (58') and Giovanni Di Lorenzo (86') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Bodø/Glimt slightly the stronger side, by 39 rating points over Napoli, even though it was Napoli who won this one. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. three yellow cards went to Napoli. Napoli: four substitutions. Bodø/Glimt: five substitutions.