Rated 1703 and 1694, these two produce a 47.9% / 25.4% / 26.7% split. One edge each: scoring to PSV (1.83 v 1.39), conceding to Porto (0.65 v 0.96).
No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 8.8%. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The two ratings differ by 9 points. The tie closed out 0-1. Porto leads the distribution by 21.2 points over PSV. Versus the 1500 seed: +203 and +194. The four component numbers read 1.39, 0.65, 1.83, 0.96. Most likely single result is Porto on 47.9%. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Their expected shares of the points are 60.5% and 39.5%. Expected goals 1.98-1.62. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 45 and 54 rated matches respectively. Spread across the three results is 22.5 points. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. The model gives 74.6% to someone winning. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 45.8% / 25.9% / 28.3%. The result went the other way.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
11 goals for and eight against accompanied Porto's three wins and two defeats across five outings. A 3-2 defeat away to Real Betis (14 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 away to Casa Pia on 12 September.
14 October: Porto lost 2-3 against Real Betis away from home in Champions League, scoring two goals and allowing three. Against Marítimo in Primeira Liga, Porto scored two and conceded one on 10 October; the away from home result was 2-1. Porto's at home game on 20 September (Primeira Liga) ended 3-1 against SL Benfica, with three goals for and one against. On 12 September, Casa Pia faced Porto in Primeira Liga: Porto won 4-1 away from home, having scored four and conceded one. Champions League, 8 September brought a home meeting with Man City; Porto lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded.
Porto stood 31st in the results-based Champions League table before kickoff, with zero points from two matches.
PSV: two wins and three defeats over five games; nine goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 2-1 defeat away to Den Haag on 17 October; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Sparta on 13 September.
PSV visited Den Haag on 17 October (Eredivisie) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. RB Leipzig hosted PSV (Champions League) on 13 October. For PSV, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 2-0 was PSV's result against Heerenveen on 9 October (Eredivisie), playing at home; PSV won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 20 September fixture (Eredivisie) paired PSV with Twente. PSV lost 2-3 away from home, netting two goals while conceding three. Playing at home against Sparta (Eredivisie), PSV finished 4-1 on 13 September. Their score comprised four goals, against one from the opposition.
Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed PSV 27th after two matches and one point.
After the match
PSV edged past Porto 1-0 on 20 October 2026. Guus Til opened the scoring 57 minutes into the game for PSV, set up by Sven Mijnans, to make it 1-0. Lutsharel Geertruida (39') and Mauro Júnior (75') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives PSV only a 26.7% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. The substitution total for Porto was five. The card tally for PSV was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for PSV. PSV finished with a clean sheet.