No separation at all — 39.6% / 27.2% / 33.2% across the three results.
Win-or-lose totals 72.8%; the draw takes the rest. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The two ratings differ by 43 points. Higher rating: the away side. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.86 and 1.81. It ended 1-1. The higher rating expects 46.8% of the points, the lower 53.2%. Neither side holds both halves — Stuttgart scores at 1.49, Atleti concedes at 0.84. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Stuttgart leads the distribution by 6.4 points over Atleti. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 46.4% / 25.7% / 27.9%. The result went the other way. With 45 and 66 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Most likely single result is Stuttgart on 39.6%. Between best and worst outcome there is 12.4 points of daylight. Attack/defence pairs: 1.49/1.04 and 1.28/0.84. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 8.6%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +120 and +163.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Stuttgart came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding four. A 1-0 defeat away to HSV (17 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Sl. Bratislava on 14 October.
Stuttgart's away from home game on 17 October (Bundesliga) ended 0-1 against HSV, with zero goals for and one against. On 14 October, Sl. Bratislava faced Stuttgart in Champions League: Stuttgart won 3-0 away from home, having scored three and conceded zero. Bundesliga, 10 October brought an away meeting with SC Paderborn; Stuttgart won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Stuttgart hosted Dortmund on 19 September (Bundesliga) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Hoffenheim hosted Stuttgart (Bundesliga) on 12 September. For Stuttgart, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed.
Stuttgart stood 4th in the results-based Champions League table before kickoff, with six points from two matches.
11 goals for and two against accompanied Atleti's five wins across five outings, keeping three clean sheets, an unbeaten run. On 17 October, Atleti recorded a 1-0 win visiting Espanyol; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Osasuna on 16 September.
17 October: Atleti won 1-0 against Espanyol away from home in La Liga, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Man United in Champions League, Atleti scored two and conceded zero on 13 October; the at home result was 2-0. Atleti's away from home game on 10 October (La Liga) ended 2-1 against Alavés, with two goals for and one against. On 20 September, Real Madrid faced Atleti in La Liga: Atleti won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one. La Liga, 16 September brought a home meeting with Osasuna; Atleti won 4-0, a return of four goals scored and zero conceded.
Atleti: 16th, three points, two matches in the calculated Champions League standings at kickoff.
After the match
Stuttgart and Atleti drew 1-1 on 20 October 2026. Jamie Leweling opened the scoring in the 36th minute for Stuttgart to make it 1-0. Julián Álvarez levelled it 47 minutes into the game for Atleti, set up by Ademola Lookman, to make it 1-1. Morten Hjulmand (64') was sent off. Maximilian Mittelstädt (17') and Diego Simeone (85') were booked. Atleti are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 La Liga and the 2026/27 Champions League. The card tally for Stuttgart was one yellow card. four changes were recorded for Stuttgart. Atleti picked up one yellow card and one red card. The substitution total for Atleti was five. Ademola Lookman, on in the 46th minute, provided an assist.