Before the numbers, the caveat: 3 rated matches behind Sabah FK. On that base the model returns 1487 against 1693 and a 19.2% / 23.1% / 57.7% split.
A decisive result carries 76.9% against 23.1% for the draw. First to second is a 34.6-point step, Dortmund over the draw. The Sabah FK figure is drawn from 3 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Logged in advance of kickoff — 17.3% / 22.4% / 60.4%. That call matched the result. Ratings sit 206 apart. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. 1-2 leads the scorelines at 9.9% — not a strong call. The four component numbers read 0.96, 1.08, 1.47, 0.74. Dortmund carries the largest share, 57.7%. Final score: 1-2. Its point estimate is 1-2. Goal expectation splits 1.06 to 2.13. A 38.5-point range top to bottom. Expected shares 30.8% against 69.2% on Elo. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -13 and +193. Dortmund holds both halves of the profile — 1.47 against 0.96 for scoring, 0.74 against 1.08 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
two goals for and four against accompanied Sabah FK's one win and one defeat across two outings. A 2-0 win at home to Slavia Praha (13 October) was their most recent result.
The 13 October fixture (Champions League) paired Sabah FK with Slavia Praha. Sabah FK won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Man United (Champions League), Sabah FK finished 0-4 on 10 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against four from the opposition.
Sabah FK: 21st, three points, two matches in the calculated Champions League standings at kickoff.
Dortmund: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; six goals scored, three conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Latest: a 0-0 draw away to Union Berlin on 17 October; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to SC Paderborn on 12 September.
On 17 October, Union Berlin faced Dortmund in Bundesliga: Dortmund drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Champions League, 14 October brought an away meeting with Bodø/Glimt; Dortmund lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Dortmund hosted Bremen on 9 October (Bundesliga) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Stuttgart hosted Dortmund (Bundesliga) on 19 September. For Dortmund, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 3-0 was Dortmund's result against SC Paderborn on 12 September (Bundesliga), playing at home; Dortmund won, with three scored to zero conceded.
three points in two matches put Dortmund 18th in the pre-match results-based Champions League standings.
After the match
Dortmund edged past Sabah FK 2-1 on 20 October 2026. Sehrou Guirassy opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for Dortmund to make it 1-0. Aden Mccarthy levelled it in the 39th minute for Sabah FK, set up by Tymoteusz Puchacz, to make it 1-1. Dortmund regained the lead through Sehrou Guirassy 53 minutes into the game, set up by Joey Veerman, to make it 2-1. Steve Solvet (22'), Ivan Lepinjica (49'), Aden Mccarthy (57') and Akim Zedadka (89') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Dortmund 206 points stronger than Sabah FK. Dortmund's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 57.7% for a win in this pairing. Sabah FK: four yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Sabah FK. The substitution total for Dortmund was five.