Read this with the sample size in view: Sl. Bratislava's rating comes from 2 rated matches. The output — 1468 against 1672, splitting 19.5% / 23.1% / 57.4% — is what the model holds, but the confidence behind it is thinner than the decimals suggest.
Final score: 0-3. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -32 and +172. The away side is rated higher. Raw profiles are 0.93 and 1.27 against 1.64 and 1.00. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The three results cover 37.9 points. The model gives 76.9% to someone winning. Expected shares 31.0% against 69.0% on Elo. Both components point the same way, toward Stuttgart: 1.64 to 0.93 going forward, 1.00 to 1.27 going back. Expected goals come out at 1.37 to 2.81. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. The gap between first and second outcome is 34.3 points, Stuttgart ahead of the draw. Sl. Bratislava's side of that rests on 2 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. 57.4% goes to Stuttgart, the model's lean. No scoreline stands out; 1-2 only leads on 8.3%. As a single number the model says 1-2.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Sl. Bratislava's previous one result comprised one defeat. Their goal totals were 1 scored and 6 conceded. Latest: a 6-1 defeat away to PSG on 9 September.
1-6 was Sl. Bratislava's result against PSG on 9 September (Champions League), playing away from home; Sl. Bratislava lost, with one scored to six conceded.
zero points in one match put Sl. Bratislava 35th in the pre-match results-based Champions League standings.
Stuttgart: three wins and two defeats over five games; ten goals scored, five conceded. SC Paderborn were their latest opponents, away on 10 October: a 2-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to 1. FC Köln on 4 September.
Stuttgart visited SC Paderborn on 10 October (Bundesliga) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded. Dortmund travelled to face Stuttgart (Bundesliga) on 19 September. For Stuttgart, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-2 was Stuttgart's result against Hoffenheim on 12 September (Bundesliga), playing away from home; Stuttgart lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 9 September fixture (Champions League) paired Stuttgart with Viking. Stuttgart won 3-1 at home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing at home against 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga), Stuttgart finished 4-1 on 4 September. Their score comprised four goals, against one from the opposition.
Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed Stuttgart 9th after one match and three points.
After the match
Stuttgart comfortably beat Sl. Bratislava 3-0 on 14 October 2026. Deniz Undav opened the scoring in the 29th minute for Stuttgart, set up by Angelo Stiller, to make it 1-0. Sandro Cruz (an own goal) added to the tally 64 minutes into the game for Stuttgart to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Stuttgart extended the lead through Ermedin Demirovic late on, in the 90th minute, set up by Lorenz Assignon, to make it 3-0. Ramon Hendriks (12'), Bilal El Khannouss (26'), Josha Vagnoman (77') and Peter Pokorny (85') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Stuttgart 204 points stronger than Sl. Bratislava. Stuttgart: 57.4% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Sl. Bratislava picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Sl. Bratislava was five. three yellow cards went to Stuttgart. The substitution total for Stuttgart was five. Ermedin Demirovic, on in the 81st minute, scored in minute 90. Lorenz Assignon entered for Stuttgart at 86 minutes and later provided an assist. Stuttgart conceded no goals.