2 rated matches is a thin base for Shaktar; the model still returns 52.6% / 24.3% / 23.1%.
Before kickoff our model had this at 46.0% / 25.8% / 28.2%. It landed. Ratings sit 41 apart. Shaktar's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 64.8%. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. The four component numbers read 1.06, 0.97, 0.97, 1.02. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The distribution runs from 52.6% down to 23.1%. A decisive result carries 75.7% against 24.3% for the draw. Shaktar holds both halves of the profile — 1.06 against 0.97 for scoring, 0.97 against 1.02 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.5%. Higher rating: the home side. Shaktar holds a 28.3-point edge on the next outcome. Scorelines above 8%: 3. xG: 1.60 to 1.27. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +34 and -7. Played and finished 3-1. Top of the distribution: Shaktar, 52.6%. Worth noting the base: only 2 rated matches sit behind Shaktar's number.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Shaktar: one draw over one game; one goal scored, one conceded. PSV were their latest opponents, away on 10 September: a 1-1 draw.
Playing away from home against PSV (Champions League), Shaktar finished 1-1 on 10 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition.
one point in one match put Shaktar 23rd in the pre-match results-based Champions League standings.
one goal for and zero against accompanied PAE AEK's one win across one outing. On 8 September, PAE AEK recorded a 1-0 win hosting LASK.
8 September: PAE AEK won 1-0 against LASK at home in Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing zero.
PAE AEK: 17th, three points, one match in the calculated Champions League standings at kickoff.
After the match
Shaktar beat PAE AEK 3-1 on 14 October 2026. Lovro Majer opened the scoring in the 28th minute for PAE AEK, set up by Stavros Pilios, to make it 1-0. Pedrinho levelled it from the penalty spot in the 34th minute for Shaktar to make it 1-1. Vinicius Tobias put Shaktar in front 80 minutes into the game, set up by Alisson Santana, to make it 2-1. Gleiker Mendoza added to the tally late on, in the 86th minute for Shaktar, set up by Isaque, to make it 3-1. Lovro Majer (18'), Harold Moukoudi (42'), Marlon Gomes (54'), Răzvan Marin (61') and Barnabás Varga (90') were booked. Shaktar: one yellow card. Shaktar made five changes. Gleiker Mendoza entered for Shaktar at 63 minutes and later scored in minute 86. After coming on for Shaktar in minute 63, Isaque provided an assist. four yellow cards went to PAE AEK. The substitution total for PAE AEK was five. Barnabás Varga, on in the 79th minute, was booked. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. The winners, Shaktar, had been behind.