On these ratings there is no favourite to name — 35.8% / 28.0% / 36.2%, nothing above 36.2%.
They have met once on record — 2025, 2-2 in Champions League, which is too little history to weigh. The model's preferred outcome is Dortmund at 36.2%. Rating separation comes to 66 points. Result on the day: 1-0. The top two outcomes are within 0.4 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. On expected goals the model has it 1.29 against 2.65. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Versus the 1500 seed: +123 and +189. Neither figure is thin: 14 and 52 matches respectively sit behind them. The four component numbers read 1.10, 1.26, 1.56, 0.79. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 8.8%. The three outcomes sit within 8.2 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. A decisive result carries 72.0% against 28.0% for the draw. Neither component contradicts the other: Dortmund leads 1.56-1.10 forward and 0.79-1.26 back. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 49.9% to 50.1%. The forecast we stored before the match was 33.4% / 27.3% / 39.3%. The result went the other way.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Bodø/Glimt: three wins and two defeats over five games; eight goals scored, 12 conceded. Bayern were their latest opponents, away on 10 September: a 5-0 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Sporting CP on 11 March.
Playing away from home against Bayern (Champions League), Bodø/Glimt finished 0-5 on 10 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against five from the opposition. 17 March: Bodø/Glimt lost 0-5 against Sporting CP away from home in Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing five. Against Sporting CP in Champions League, Bodø/Glimt scored three and conceded zero on 11 March; the at home result was 3-0. Bodø/Glimt's away from home game on 24 February (Champions League) ended 2-1 against Inter, with two goals for and one against. On 18 February, Inter faced Bodø/Glimt in Champions League: Bodø/Glimt won 3-1 at home, having scored three and conceded one.
Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed Bodø/Glimt 36th after one match and zero points.
Dortmund were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring 12 goals and conceding six. On 9 October, Dortmund recorded a 2-2 draw hosting Bremen; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to SC Paderborn on 12 September.
Bremen travelled to face Dortmund (Bundesliga) on 9 October. For Dortmund, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 1-0 was Dortmund's result against Stuttgart on 19 September (Bundesliga), playing away from home; Dortmund won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 12 September fixture (Bundesliga) paired Dortmund with SC Paderborn. Dortmund won 3-0 at home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Villarreal (Champions League), Dortmund finished 3-2 on 8 September. Their score comprised three goals, against two from the opposition. 5 September: Dortmund won 3-2 against Hoffenheim away from home in Bundesliga, scoring three goals and allowing two.
Dortmund: 12th, three points, one match in the calculated Champions League standings at kickoff.
The last recorded meeting was a 2-2 draw at Dortmund on 10 December 2025.
After the match
Bodø/Glimt edged past Dortmund 1-0 on 14 October 2026. Fredrik Sjøvold opened the scoring 52 minutes into the game for Bodø/Glimt, set up by Sondre Auklend, to make it 1-0. Kouakou Gadou (13') and Fábio Silva (25') were booked. Bodø/Glimt won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win. one change was recorded for Bodø/Glimt. Dortmund: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Dortmund. Bodø/Glimt finished with a clean sheet.