On record: 4 meetings from 2016, 0-9 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2018, 0-2 in Champions League. Against that, current ratings read 1672 and 1746, a 74-point margin, and the model splits the tie 34.9% / 27.7% / 37.4%.
Result on the day: 3-4. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 8.9%. A 2.5-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. All three results are bunched inside 9.7 points. In absolute terms: Roma 1.44/0.75, Real Madrid 1.66/0.88 on attack and defence. The underlying goal expectation is 1.89 for Roma, 1.69 for Real Madrid. Real Madrid's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 51.3%. Versus the 1500 seed: +172 and +246. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 46 and 62 matches. Most likely single result is Real Madrid on 37.4%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. One half each — Real Madrid in front on 1.66, Roma behind on 0.75. Rounded, that is 1-1. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. The two ratings differ by 74 points.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Roma: two wins and three draws over five games; seven goals scored, four conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 0-0 draw away to Como 1907 on 11 October.
Against Como 1907 in Serie A, Roma scored zero and conceded zero on 11 October; the away from home result was 0-0. Roma's at home game on 19 September (Serie A) ended 2-2 against Inter, with two goals for and two against. On 14 September, Torino faced Roma in Serie A: Roma won 2-0 away from home, having scored two and conceded zero. Champions League, 10 September brought an away meeting with Fenerbahçe; Roma drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Roma hosted Atalanta on 5 September (Serie A) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded.
Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed Roma 23rd after one match and one point.
Real Madrid came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding six. A 1-0 win at home to Villarreal (10 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Rayo Vallecano on 12 September.
Real Madrid's at home game on 10 October (La Liga) ended 1-0 against Villarreal, with one goal for and zero against. On 20 September, Atleti faced Real Madrid in La Liga: Real Madrid lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. La Liga, 15 September brought an away meeting with Elche; Real Madrid won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded. Real Madrid hosted Rayo Vallecano on 12 September (La Liga) and won 4-1; their goals totalled four, compared with one conceded. Inter travelled to face Real Madrid (Champions League) on 8 September. For Real Madrid, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed.
Real Madrid: 16th, three points, one match in the calculated Champions League standings at kickoff.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-0 away win for Real Madrid on 27 November 2018 and a 3-0 home win for Real Madrid on 19 September 2018.
After the match
Real Madrid edged past Roma 4-3 on 14 October 2026. Marten de Roon opened the scoring in the 20th minute for Roma, set up by Matias Soule, to make it 1-0. Kylian Mbappé levelled it in the 25th minute for Real Madrid, set up by Yan Diomandé, to make it 1-1. Roma regained the lead through Donyell Malen 51 minutes into the game, set up by Rodrigo Mora, to make it 2-1. Donyell Malen added to the tally 57 minutes into the game for Roma, set up by Matias Soule, to make it 3-1. Carlos Espí pulled one back late on, in the 83rd minute for Real Madrid to make it 2-3. With the 6th goal, Real Madrid drew level through Endrick late on, in the 85th minute, set up by Arda Guler, to make it 3-3. With the 7th goal, Real Madrid took the lead through Antonio Rüdiger late on, in the 90th minute, set up by Arda Guler, to make it 4-3. Gianluca Mancini (60'), Wesley (69'), Lorenzo Pellegrini (89') and Álvaro Carreras (90') were booked. 3 gols came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model puts Real Madrid at around 1.69 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Roma: three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Roma. Rodrigo Mora provided an assist following entry for Roma in the 46th minute. Lorenzo Pellegrini, on in the 63rd minute, was booked. Real Madrid: one yellow card. Real Madrid made five changes. Endrick entered for Real Madrid at 59 minutes and later scored in minute 85. After coming on for Real Madrid in minute 59, Arda Guler provided an assist. Álvaro Carreras was booked following entry for Real Madrid in the 78th minute. Carlos Espí, on in the 78th minute, scored in minute 83. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. After trailing, Real Madrid secured the win.