1666 plays 1653; the model splits it 48.3% / 25.3% / 26.4%. The split is one apiece: Feyenoord leads the attacking rate on 1.81, Como 1907 the defensive on 0.75.
Versus the 1500 seed: +166 and +153. Logged in advance of kickoff — 28.5% / 25.9% / 45.7%. That one did not come off. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Most and least likely outcomes are 23.0 points apart. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. In absolute terms: Feyenoord 1.81/0.93, Como 1907 1.33/0.75 on attack and defence. First to second is a 21.9-point step, Feyenoord over Como 1907. It ended 3-2. Its rounded call is 2-1. Rating separation comes to 13 points. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 8.5%. 74.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The xG line reads 2.02 to 1.67. Neither figure is thin: 44 and 46 matches respectively sit behind them. On the Elo curve they expect 61.0% and 39.0% of the points. Most likely single result is Feyenoord on 48.3%.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Feyenoord's previous five results comprised four wins and one defeat. Their goal totals were 18 scored and 6 conceded, keeping three clean sheets. AZ were their latest opponents, at home on 10 October: a 2-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 7-0 away to Zwolle on 13 September.
On 10 October, AZ faced Feyenoord in Eredivisie: Feyenoord won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero. Eredivisie, 20 September brought a home meeting with Utrecht; Feyenoord won 5-0, a return of five goals scored and zero conceded. Feyenoord visited Zwolle on 13 September (Eredivisie) and won 7-0; their goals totalled seven, compared with zero conceded. Barça hosted Feyenoord (Champions League) on 9 September. For Feyenoord, the score was 1-5: one goal scored, five allowed. 3-1 was Feyenoord's result against NEC on 5 September (Eredivisie), playing away from home; Feyenoord won, with three scored to one conceded.
Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed Feyenoord 33rd after one match and zero points.
Como 1907: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; ten goals scored, five conceded. Roma were their latest opponents, at home on 11 October: a 0-0 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to RB Leipzig on 10 September.
Como 1907 hosted Roma on 11 October (Serie A) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Frosinone hosted Como 1907 (Serie A) on 20 September. For Como 1907, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 2-1 was Como 1907's result against Parma on 14 September (Serie A), playing at home; Como 1907 won, with two scored to one conceded. The 10 September fixture (Champions League) paired Como 1907 with RB Leipzig. Como 1907 won 4-1 at home, netting four goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Genoa (Serie A), Como 1907 finished 4-1 on 4 September. Their score comprised four goals, against one from the opposition.
three points in one match put Como 1907 6th in the pre-match results-based Champions League standings.
After the match
Feyenoord edged past Como 1907 3-2 on 14 October 2026. Assane Diao opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Como 1907, set up by Jacobo Ramón, to make it 1-0. Gjivai Zechiël levelled it in the 20th minute for Feyenoord, set up by Luciano Valente, to make it 1-1. Anis Moussa put Feyenoord in front 52 minutes into the game, set up by Gaoussou Diarra, to make it 2-1. Robert Sánchez (an own goal) added to the tally late on, in the 81st minute for Feyenoord to make it 3-1. Anastasios Douvikas pulled one back in the 93rd minute for Como 1907 to make it 2-3. Gaoussou Diarra (50'), Ivan Smolčić (57'), Jacobo Ramón (69'), Lucas Da Cunha (74') and Givairo Read (84') were booked. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Feyenoord's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Eredivisie and the 2026/27 Champions League. two yellow cards went to Feyenoord. The substitution total for Feyenoord was four. After coming on for Feyenoord in minute 46, Gaoussou Diarra provided an assist and was booked. Como 1907 picked up three yellow cards. Como 1907: five substitutions. Lucas Da Cunha entered for Como 1907 at 60 minutes and later was booked. After coming on for Como 1907 in minute 60, Anastasios Douvikas scored in minute 93. Across the goals, the lead switched one time. Feyenoord won after falling behind.