Before the numbers, the caveat: 2 rated matches behind LASK. On that base the model returns 1459 against 1617 and a 24.5% / 24.7% / 50.8% split.
Spread across the three results is 26.3 points. The gap between first and second outcome is 26.1 points, Liverpool ahead of the draw. The higher rating expects 63.1% of the points, the lower 36.9%. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Someone wins 75.3% of the time by this model. Attack/defence pairs: 1.02/1.19 and 1.32/1.04. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -41 and +117. Most likely single result is Liverpool on 50.8%. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The tie closed out 3-6. Only 2 rated matches back the LASK figure. Both components point the same way, toward Liverpool: 1.32 to 1.02 going forward, 1.04 to 1.19 going back. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.57 and 2.12. Rounded, that is 1-2. The scoreline spread is even — 1-2 on 8.8% leads, but only just. Ratings sit 158 apart. Before kickoff our model had this at 31.1% / 26.6% / 42.3%. That call matched the result.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
LASK: one defeat over one game; zero goals scored, one conceded. PAE AEK were their latest opponents, away on 8 September: a 1-0 defeat.
Against PAE AEK in Champions League, LASK scored zero and conceded one on 8 September; the away from home result was 0-1.
Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed LASK 27th after one match and zero points.
five goals for and four against accompanied Liverpool's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings, keeping three clean sheets. On 11 October, Liverpool recorded a 3-0 defeat hosting Man City.
Liverpool's at home game on 11 October (Premier League) ended 0-3 against Man City, with zero goals for and three against. On 20 September, Bournemouth faced Liverpool in Premier League: Liverpool won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Premier League, 12 September brought a home meeting with Fulham; Liverpool drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Liverpool hosted Atleti on 9 September (Champions League) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Ipswich Town hosted Liverpool (Premier League) on 4 September. For Liverpool, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed.
Liverpool stood 15th in the results-based Champions League table before kickoff, with three points from one match.
After the match
Liverpool comfortably beat LASK 6-3 on 14 October 2026. Ronald Araújo opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for Liverpool, set up by Kostas Tsimikas, to make it 1-0. Bradley Barcola added to the tally in the 24th minute for Liverpool, set up by Lewis Koumas, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Liverpool extended the lead through Bradley Barcola in the 37th minute, set up by Florian Wirtz, to make it 3-0. Jeremie Frimpong scored the 4th goal for Liverpool 51 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Kostas Tsimikas, to make it 4-0. Robert Ljubicic got one back 63 minutes into the game for LASK, set up by Junior Dibango, to make it 1-4. Liverpool extended the lead 66 minutes into the game; the match's 6th goal came through Bradley Barcola, set up by Jeremie Frimpong, to make it 5-1. The 7th goal came 72 minutes into the game from Lewis Koumas for Liverpool, who extended the lead, set up by Jeremie Frimpong, to make it 6-1. With the 8th goal, LASK reduced the deficit through Florian Flecker 74 minutes into the game, set up by Junior Dibango, to make it 2-6. Florian Flecker scored the 9th goal for LASK 77 minutes into the game as they reduced the deficit, set up by Junior Dibango, to make it 3-6. Daniel Elfadli (80') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Liverpool 158 points stronger than LASK. On current ratings the model puts Liverpool at around 2.12 gols in this pairing; they scored 6 here. The card tally for LASK was one yellow card. LASK made five changes. Florian Flecker entered for LASK at 46 minutes and later scored two times in minutes 74, 77. After coming on for LASK in minute 62, Robert Ljubicic scored in minute 63. Daniel Elfadli was booked following entry for LASK in the 71st minute. Liverpool: five substitutions.