On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2011, 0-4 on goals. Last time: 2011, 0-2 in Champions League. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1553 and 1569 — 16 points — for a 43.8% / 26.3% / 29.9% split.
73.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Before kickoff our model had this at 38.2% / 27.5% / 34.3%. It landed. Played and finished 3-1. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +53 and +69. Neither figure is thin: 56 and 54 matches respectively sit behind them. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Villarreal has the better scoring rate (1.37) and Napoli the better defensive one (0.83). The two ratings differ by 16 points. Most likely single result is Villarreal on 43.8%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. In absolute terms: Villarreal 1.37/1.15, Napoli 1.08/0.83 on attack and defence. As a single number the model says 1-1. The three results cover 17.5 points. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 9.8%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 57.0% to 43.0%. Villarreal holds a 13.9-point edge on the next outcome.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Villarreal's previous five results comprised two wins and three defeats. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 8 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 defeat away to Real Madrid on 10 October.
0-1 was Villarreal's result against Real Madrid on 10 October (La Liga), playing away from home; Villarreal lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 20 September fixture (La Liga) paired Villarreal with Levante. Villarreal won 3-1 at home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Málaga (La Liga), Villarreal finished 3-1 on 17 September. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 14 September: Villarreal lost 1-2 against Real Betis at home in La Liga, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Dortmund in Champions League, Villarreal scored two and conceded three on 8 September; the away from home result was 2-3.
zero points in one match put Villarreal 22nd in the pre-match results-based Champions League standings.
Napoli: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; seven goals scored, five conceded. Latest: a 3-0 win at home to Frosinone on 10 October.
3-0 was Napoli's result against Frosinone on 10 October (Serie A), playing at home; Napoli won, with three scored to zero conceded. The 20 September fixture (Serie A) paired Napoli with Fiorentina. Napoli drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Bologna (Serie A), Napoli finished 1-0 on 13 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 9 September: Napoli lost 0-1 against Arsenal at home in Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Inter in Serie A, Napoli scored two and conceded three on 5 September; the away from home result was 2-3.
Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed Napoli 27th after one match and zero points.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-0 away win for Napoli on 7 December 2011 and a 2-0 home win for Napoli on 27 September 2011.
After the match
Villarreal beat Napoli 3-1 on 13 October 2026. Amir Rrahmani opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Napoli to make it 1-0. Georges Mikautadze levelled it in the 23rd minute for Villarreal to make it 1-1. Santiago Mouriño put Villarreal in front in the 26th minute, set up by Gerard Moreno, to make it 2-1. Tani Oluwaseyi added to the tally late on, in the 86th minute for Villarreal, set up by Ayoze Pérez, to make it 3-1. Georges Mikautadze (33'), Giovane Nascimento (55'), Kevin De Bruyne (62'), Nathan-Dylan Saliba (67') and Giovanni Di Lorenzo (85') were booked. Villarreal won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win. two yellow cards went to Villarreal. Villarreal: five substitutions. Tani Oluwaseyi, on in the 63rd minute, scored in minute 86. Ayoze Pérez entered for Villarreal at 83 minutes and later provided an assist. The card tally for Napoli was three yellow cards. Napoli made five changes. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. Villarreal turned a deficit into victory.