A 267-point edge to Bayern, which the model prices at 13.4% / 20.9% / 65.7%.
The model gives 79.1% to someone winning. A 44.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Most likely single result is Bayern on 65.7%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 12 and 55 rated matches respectively. Distance between the ratings: 267 points, wide on this scale. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Result on the day: 3-3. Reduced to one result that is 1-2. Before kickoff our model had this at 13.4% / 20.9% / 65.7%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.43/0.85 and 2.43/0.89. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The three results cover 52.3 points. One half each — Bayern in front on 2.43, Viking behind on 0.85. Expected goals come out at 1.88 to 2.80. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +96 and +363. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-2 on 6.8%. The higher rating expects 76.2% of the points, the lower 23.8%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
15 goals for and five against accompanied Viking's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. On 9 October, Viking recorded a 2-0 win visiting Brann; their biggest win in that spell was 8-1 at home to Kristiansund BK on 13 September.
9 October: Viking won 2-0 against Brann away from home in Eliteserien, scoring two goals and allowing zero. Against Lillestrom in Eliteserien, Viking scored three and conceded zero on 20 September; the at home result was 3-0. Viking's at home game on 13 September (Eliteserien) ended 8-1 against Kristiansund BK, with eight goals for and one against. On 9 September, Stuttgart faced Viking in Champions League: Viking lost 1-3 away from home, having scored one and conceded three. Eliteserien, 4 September brought an away meeting with Sandefjord; Viking drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded.
Viking stood 29th in the results-based Champions League table before kickoff, with zero points from one match.
Bayern's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 16 scored and 3 conceded, keeping three clean sheets, with no defeats. Augsburg were their latest opponents, away on 10 October: a 2-2 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 7-0 at home to Union Berlin on 18 September.
Playing away from home against Augsburg (Bundesliga), Bayern finished 2-2 on 10 October. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 18 September: Bayern won 7-0 against Union Berlin at home in Bundesliga, scoring seven goals and allowing zero. Against Elversberg in Bundesliga, Bayern scored two and conceded one on 13 September; the away from home result was 2-1. Bayern's at home game on 10 September (Champions League) ended 5-0 against Bodø/Glimt, with five goals for and zero against. On 5 September, Schalke faced Bayern in Bundesliga: Bayern drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero.
three points in one match put Bayern 3rd in the pre-match results-based Champions League standings.
After the match
Viking and Bayern drew 3-3 on 13 October 2026. Gianni Stensness opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for Viking, set up by Zlatko Tripić, to make it 1-0. Peter Christiansen added to the tally in the 38th minute for Viking, set up by Erik Botheim, to make it 2-0. Harry Kane pulled one back from the penalty spot 54 minutes into the game for Bayern to make it 1-2. Harry Kane levelled it 60 minutes into the game for Bayern, set up by Joshua Kimmich, to make it 2-2. Luis Díaz put Bayern in front 71 minutes into the game, set up by Konrad Laimer, to make it 3-2. With the 6th goal, Viking drew level through Herman Haugen late on, in the 90th minute, set up by Zlatko Tripić, to make it 3-3. Michael Olise (73') was sent off. Konrad Laimer (52'), Kristoffer Haugen (53'), Jesper Daland (67'), Ismael Saibari (68') and Michael Olise (73') were booked. Viking are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Eliteserien and the 2026/27 Champions League. Bayern are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in the 2025/26 Bundesliga, the 2025/26 DFB-Pokal, the 2026/27 Bundesliga, the 2026/27 DFB-Pokal and the 2026/27 Champions League. Viking picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Viking was five. After coming on for Viking in minute 59, Jesper Daland was booked. Herman Haugen scored in minute 90 following entry for Viking in the 72nd minute. Bayern: three yellow cards and one red card. five changes were recorded for Bayern. Ismael Saibari entered for Bayern at 46 minutes and later was booked. The scoring record shows one lead change.