A 224-point edge to Arsenal, which the model prices at 75.2% / 17.9% / 7.0%.
82.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +312 and +88. Final score: 3-0. Before kickoff our model had this at 75.0% / 17.9% / 7.1%. That call matched the result. xG: 1.48 to 0.66. The higher rating belongs to the home side. As a single number the model says 1-0. Most and least likely outcomes are 68.2 points apart. Both components point the same way, toward Arsenal: 1.23 to 0.99 going forward, 0.49 to 0.81 going back. In absolute terms: Arsenal 1.23/0.49, Lille 0.99/0.81 on attack and defence. Neither figure is thin: 61 and 42 matches respectively sit behind them. 1-0 is the single most probable result at 17.5%, clear of 2-0 on 12.9%. The leading outcome clears the second by 57.3 points. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 84.1% to 15.9%. Distance between the ratings: 224 points, wide on this scale. 75.2% goes to Arsenal, the model's lean. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Arsenal's previous five results comprised four wins and one defeat. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 5 conceded. Latest: a 2-1 win at home to Leeds United on 10 October.
Arsenal hosted Leeds United on 10 October (Premier League) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Brighton Hove hosted Arsenal (Premier League) on 19 September. For Arsenal, the score was 0-3: zero goals scored, three allowed. 2-0 was Arsenal's result against Sunderland on 12 September (Premier League), playing away from home; Arsenal won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 9 September fixture (Champions League) paired Arsenal with Napoli. Arsenal won 1-0 away from home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against Chelsea (Premier League), Arsenal finished 2-1 on 6 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition.
Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed Arsenal 14th after one match and three points.
Lille's previous five results comprised three wins and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 5 conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Le Havre were their latest opponents, at home on 10 October: a 1-0 win.
1-0 was Lille's result against Le Havre on 10 October (Ligue 1), playing at home; Lille won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 20 September fixture (Ligue 1) paired Lille with Nice. Lille lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing at home against Troyes (Ligue 1), Lille finished 2-0 on 13 September. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 8 September: Lille lost 2-3 against Real Betis at home in Champions League, scoring two goals and allowing three. Against Toulouse in Ligue 1, Lille scored one and conceded zero on 3 September; the away from home result was 1-0.
Before kickoff, Champions League's results-based standings placed Lille 22nd after one match and zero points.
After the match
Arsenal comfortably beat Lille 3-0 on 13 October 2026. Jurrien Timber opened the scoring 64 minutes into the game for Arsenal, set up by Noni Madueke, to make it 1-0. Eberechi Eze added to the tally 67 minutes into the game for Arsenal, set up by Bukayo Saka, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Arsenal extended the lead through Bukayo Saka 71 minutes into the game, set up by Kai Havertz, to make it 3-0. Mikel Merino (29'), Maxima Goffi (81') and Kai Havertz (90') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. Arsenal's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 75.2% for a win in this pairing. The card tally for Arsenal was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Arsenal. Bukayo Saka scored in minute 71 and provided an assist following entry for Arsenal in the 65th minute. Kai Havertz, on in the 65th minute, provided an assist and was booked. The card tally for Lille was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Lille. A clean sheet for Arsenal.