A 170-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 23.2% / 24.3% / 52.5% distribution.
Final score: 0-2. Expected goals sit at 1.42 against 2.47. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 8.9%. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. In absolute terms: RC Lens 1.35/1.04, Sporting CP 1.77/0.70 on attack and defence. The higher-rated side expects 64.7% of the points; the other side 35.3%. The three results cover 29.3 points. The single-scoreline output is 1-2. The forecast we stored before the match was 28.3% / 25.8% / 45.9%. It landed. Sporting CP holds both halves of the profile — 1.77 against 1.35 for scoring, 0.70 against 1.04 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 1 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Most likely single result is Sporting CP on 52.5%. A 170-point difference on the rating scale. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Sporting CP holds a 28.2-point edge on the next outcome. Someone wins 75.7% of the time by this model. Versus the 1500 seed: +94 and +264. The ratings draw on 42 and 56 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
RC Lens's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 8 conceded. Olympique Lyon were their latest opponents, at home on 9 October: a 2-1 win.
On 9 October, Olympique Lyon faced RC Lens in Ligue 1: RC Lens won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one. Ligue 1, 18 September brought an away meeting with Monaco; RC Lens lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. RC Lens visited Le Mans on 13 September (Ligue 1) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Slavia Praha hosted RC Lens (Champions League) on 10 September. For RC Lens, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 0-1 was RC Lens's result against Lorient on 5 September (Ligue 1), playing at home; RC Lens lost, with zero scored to one conceded.
three points in one match put RC Lens 9th in the pre-match results-based Champions League standings.
Sporting CP's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 11 scored and 5 conceded, with no defeats. Braga were their latest opponents, away on 9 October: a 3-1 win.
Playing away from home against Braga (Primeira Liga), Sporting CP finished 3-1 on 9 October. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 19 September: Sporting CP drew 2-2 against Arouca at home in Primeira Liga, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against Famalicão in Primeira Liga, Sporting CP scored one and conceded one on 13 September; the away from home result was 1-1. Sporting CP's at home game on 9 September (Champions League) ended 3-1 against Galatasaray, with three goals for and one against. On 5 September, CD Nacional faced Sporting CP in Primeira Liga: Sporting CP won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero.
three points in one match put Sporting CP 6th in the pre-match results-based Champions League standings.
After the match
Sporting CP beat RC Lens 2-0 on 13 October 2026. Luis Suárez opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for Sporting CP, set up by Nestor Irankunda, to make it 1-0. Issa Doumbia added to the tally 74 minutes into the game for Sporting CP, set up by Silas Andersen, to make it 2-0. Mickaël Cuisance (71') and Florian Thauvin (81') were booked. Sporting CP are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Primeira Liga and the 2026/27 Champions League. RC Lens: two yellow cards. RC Lens made five changes. Sporting CP made five changes. Silas Andersen provided an assist following entry for Sporting CP in the 73rd minute. A clean sheet for Sporting CP.