6 meetings sit in the record, first in 2023, aggregate 13-6. The latest was 2026, 4-0 in Primeira Liga. Against that, current ratings read 1385 and 1369, a 16-point margin, and the model splits the tie 48.8% / 25.2% / 26.0%.
Behind them are 44 and 44 rated matches. The match finished 0-2. Versus the 1500 seed: -115 and -131. Someone wins 74.8% of the time by this model. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Rounded, that is 1-0. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 61.5% to 38.5%. The model's preferred outcome is Amadora at 48.8%. The rating gap itself is 16 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.62 and 0.94. First to second is a 22.8-point step, Amadora over Casa Pia. Outcomes span 23.6 points. The edge is split: Amadora scores at the higher rate (0.92 to 0.54), Casa Pia concedes at the lower (1.19 to 1.28). No scoreline stands out; 1-0 only leads on 12.5%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.92/1.28 and 0.54/1.19.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Amadora: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; seven goals scored, nine conceded. Arouca were their latest opponents, away on 11 October: a 1-0 defeat.
0-1 was Amadora's result against Arouca on 11 October (Primeira Liga), playing away from home; Amadora lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 20 September fixture (Primeira Liga) paired Amadora with Acad. Viseu. Amadora lost 0-2 at home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Rio Ave (Primeira Liga), Amadora finished 3-3 on 14 September. Their score comprised three goals, against three from the opposition. 10 September: Amadora won 2-1 against Braga at home in Primeira Liga, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Famalicão in Primeira Liga, Amadora scored two and conceded two on 5 September; the at home result was 2-2.
Before kickoff, Primeira Liga's results-based standings placed Amadora 10th after eight matches and ten points.
Casa Pia's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 3 scored and 7 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 1-0 defeat at home to Santa Clara on 10 October.
On 10 October, Santa Clara faced Casa Pia in Primeira Liga: Casa Pia lost 0-1 at home, having scored zero and conceded one. Primeira Liga, 20 September brought an away meeting with Estoril Praia; Casa Pia won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Casa Pia hosted Porto on 12 September (Primeira Liga) and lost 1-4; their goals totalled one, compared with four conceded. Vitória SC hosted Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) on 6 September. For Casa Pia, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 0-1 was Casa Pia's result against Moreirense on 30 August (Primeira Liga), playing at home; Casa Pia lost, with zero scored to one conceded.
four points in eight matches put Casa Pia 17th in the pre-match results-based Primeira Liga standings.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 4-0 home win for Amadora on 20 March and a 5-3 away win for Amadora on 1 November 2025.
After the match
Casa Pia beat Amadora 2-0 on 24 October 2026. João Rêgo opened the scoring in the 31st minute for Casa Pia, set up by Mohamed Salah, to make it 1-0. Lawrence Ofori added to the tally in the 92nd minute for Casa Pia, set up by Henrique Araujo, to make it 2-0. Patrick Sequeira (68'), Jefferson Encada (90') and Pedro Rosas (90') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Casa Pia only a 26% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Amadora's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2026/27 Primeira Liga. Amadora: one yellow card. Amadora made five changes. Jefferson Encada was booked following entry for Amadora in the 72nd minute. two yellow cards went to Casa Pia. Casa Pia: five substitutions. Henrique Araujo entered for Casa Pia at 60 minutes and later provided an assist. Casa Pia kept their opponents scoreless.