The head-to-head counts 22 recorded meetings since 2011: 4 to Gil Vicente, 15 to Porto, 3 drawn, 18-44 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-3 in Primeira Liga. Today those sides rate 1507 and 1716, 209 apart, which resolves to 18.8% / 22.9% / 58.2%.
Expected goals 0.72-1.65. Porto holds both halves of the profile — 1.45 against 0.84 for scoring, 0.58 against 0.84 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Versus the 1500 seed: +7 and +216. Elo expected shares: 30.4% and 69.6%. The four component numbers read 0.84, 0.84, 1.45, 0.58. A 35.3-point margin separates the top two outcomes. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Porto carries the largest share, 58.2%. A 39.4-point range top to bottom. Result on the day: 0-1. The ratings draw on 43 and 47 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The two ratings differ by 209 points. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. As a single number the model says 0-1. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. 0-1 is the single most probable result at 15.5%, clear of 0-2 on 12.7%.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Gil Vicente came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding six. A 2-1 win away to Braga (19 October) was their most recent result.
Primeira Liga, 19 October brought an away meeting with Braga; Gil Vicente won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Gil Vicente visited Moreirense on 9 October (Primeira Liga) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Marítimo travelled to face Gil Vicente (Primeira Liga) on 19 September. For Gil Vicente, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 1-3 was Gil Vicente's result against SL Benfica on 13 September (Primeira Liga), playing away from home; Gil Vicente lost, with one scored to three conceded. The 6 September fixture (Primeira Liga) paired Gil Vicente with Acad. Viseu. Gil Vicente lost 0-1 at home, netting zero goals while conceding one.
Gil Vicente: 6th, 14 points, eight matches in the calculated Primeira Liga standings at kickoff.
11 goals for and seven against accompanied Porto's three wins and two defeats across five outings. A 1-0 defeat at home to PSV (20 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 away to Casa Pia on 12 September.
PSV travelled to face Porto (Champions League) on 20 October. For Porto, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 2-3 was Porto's result against Real Betis on 14 October (Champions League), playing away from home; Porto lost, with two scored to three conceded. The 10 October fixture (Primeira Liga) paired Porto with Marítimo. Porto won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against SL Benfica (Primeira Liga), Porto finished 3-1 on 20 September. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 12 September: Porto won 4-1 against Casa Pia away from home in Primeira Liga, scoring four goals and allowing one.
Porto stood 1st in the results-based Primeira Liga table before kickoff, with 24 points from eight matches.
The last two recorded meetings were a 3-0 home win for Porto on 26 January and a 2-0 away win for Porto on 18 August 2025.
After the match
Porto edged past Gil Vicente 1-0 on 24 October 2026. Borja Sainz opened the scoring 63 minutes into the game for Porto to make it 1-0. Marvin Elimbi (84') was sent off. Pablo Rosario (56') was booked. Porto: 58.2% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Gil Vicente picked up one red card. Gil Vicente: five substitutions. one yellow card went to Porto. The substitution total for Porto was four. Porto conceded no goals.