Sporting CP enters 167 points clear of Acad. Viseu on rating, which the model reads as 69.3% / 19.9% / 10.8%.
With 59 and 9 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Ratings sit 167 apart. Final score: 1-2. By expected share of the points: 79.2% and 20.8%. Sporting CP holds a 49.4-point edge on the next outcome. The model's preferred outcome is Sporting CP at 69.3%. Spread across the three results is 58.5 points. On expected goals the model has it 2.34 against 1.11. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Sporting CP is ahead on each half — 1.68 to 1.05 in attack, 0.79 to 0.94 in defence. The model gives 80.1% to someone winning. Raw profiles are 1.68 and 0.79 against 1.05 and 0.94. Its rounded call is 2-1. The scoreline spread is even — 2-1 on 9.7% leads, but only just. Higher rating: the home side. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +218 and +51.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
ten goals for and seven against accompanied Sporting CP's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings. A 3-2 defeat at home to LASK (21 October) was their most recent result.
Sporting CP's at home game on 21 October (Champions League) ended 2-3 against LASK, with two goals for and three against. On 13 October, RC Lens faced Sporting CP in Champions League: Sporting CP won 2-0 away from home, having scored two and conceded zero. Primeira Liga, 9 October brought an away meeting with Braga; Sporting CP won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Sporting CP hosted Arouca on 19 September (Primeira Liga) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Famalicão hosted Sporting CP (Primeira Liga) on 13 September. For Sporting CP, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed.
Sporting CP: 3rd, 18 points, eight matches in the calculated Primeira Liga standings at kickoff.
Acad. Viseu came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding five. A 2-1 win at home to Estoril Praia (10 October) was their most recent result.
10 October: Acad. Viseu won 2-1 against Estoril Praia at home in Primeira Liga, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Amadora in Primeira Liga, Acad. Viseu scored two and conceded zero on 20 September; the away from home result was 2-0. Acad. Viseu's at home game on 12 September (Primeira Liga) ended 2-1 against Vitória SC, with two goals for and one against. On 6 September, Gil Vicente faced Acad. Viseu in Primeira Liga: Acad. Viseu won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Primeira Liga, 29 August brought a home meeting with Porto; Acad. Viseu lost 0-3, a return of zero goals scored and three conceded.
Acad. Viseu stood 6th in the results-based Primeira Liga table before kickoff, with 14 points from eight matches.
After the match
Acad. Viseu edged past Sporting CP 2-1 on 25 October 2026. João Guilherme opened the scoring in the 24th minute for Acad. Viseu, set up by Robinho Vieira, to make it 1-0. Luis Suárez levelled it 62 minutes into the game for Sporting CP, set up by Ivan Fresneda, to make it 1-1. Acad. Viseu regained the lead through João Guilherme 74 minutes into the game, set up by Soufiane Messeguem, to make it 2-1. Luís Silva (9'), Cihan Kahraman (11'), Issa Doumbia (41'), Nils Mortimer Moreno (45'), Maximiliano Araújo (88') and Mestanza (90') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Sporting CP clearly the stronger side, by 167 rating points over Acad. Viseu, even though it was Acad. Viseu who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Acad. Viseu only a 10.8% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Acad. Viseu's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Primeira Liga. two yellow cards went to Sporting CP. The substitution total for Sporting CP was five. four yellow cards went to Acad. Viseu. The substitution total for Acad. Viseu was four. After coming on for Acad. Viseu in minute 72, Mestanza was booked.