12 meetings sit in the record, first in 2019, aggregate 8-12. The latest was 2026, 0-0 in Primeira Liga. Currently 1381 against 1544 — a 24.0% / 24.6% / 51.4% split.
Famalicão's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 63.7%. A 27.4-point range top to bottom. Someone wins 75.4% of the time by this model. Famalicão holds both halves of the profile — 1.07 against 0.73 for scoring, 0.78 against 1.43 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Higher rating: the away side. The leading outcome clears the second by 26.8 points. The model's preferred outcome is Famalicão at 51.4%. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Its point estimate is 0-2. With 43 and 43 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Raw profiles are 0.73 and 1.43 against 1.07 and 0.78. 0-2 leads the scorelines at 11.6% — not a strong call. A 163-point difference on the rating scale. It ended 0-4. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -119 and +44. Goal expectation splits 0.85 to 2.07.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
six goals for and 14 against accompanied Rio Ave's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. A 3-2 win at home to CD Nacional (11 October) was their most recent result.
CD Nacional travelled to face Rio Ave (Primeira Liga) on 11 October. For Rio Ave, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 0-1 was Rio Ave's result against Alverca on 19 September (Primeira Liga), playing away from home; Rio Ave lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 14 September fixture (Primeira Liga) paired Rio Ave with Amadora. Rio Ave drew 3-3 at home, netting three goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Santa Clara (Primeira Liga), Rio Ave finished 0-4 on 6 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against four from the opposition. 28 August: Rio Ave lost 0-4 against Sporting CP at home in Primeira Liga, scoring zero goals and allowing four.
Rio Ave: 15th, seven points, eight matches in the calculated Primeira Liga standings at kickoff.
Famalicão: one win, three draws and one defeat over five games; eight goals scored, seven conceded. Alverca were their latest opponents, at home on 12 October: a 4-1 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to CD Nacional on 19 September.
On 12 October, Alverca faced Famalicão in Primeira Liga: Famalicão lost 1-4 at home, having scored one and conceded four. Primeira Liga, 19 September brought an away meeting with CD Nacional; Famalicão won 4-0, a return of four goals scored and zero conceded. Famalicão hosted Sporting CP on 13 September (Primeira Liga) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Amadora hosted Famalicão (Primeira Liga) on 5 September. For Famalicão, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 0-0 was Famalicão's result against Gil Vicente on 30 August (Primeira Liga), playing at home; Famalicão drew, with zero scored to zero conceded.
seven points in eight matches put Famalicão 14th in the pre-match results-based Primeira Liga standings.
Previous meetings in our records: a 0-0 draw at Rio Ave on 1 March and a 0-0 draw at Famalicão on 28 September 2025.
After the match
Famalicão overwhelmed Rio Ave 4-0 on 25 October 2026. Romeo Beney opened the scoring 48 minutes into the game for Famalicão, set up by Rodrigo Pinheiro, to make it 1-0. Pedro Santos added to the tally 80 minutes into the game for Famalicão, set up by Marcos Vinicios, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Famalicão extended the lead through Óscar Aranda late on, in the 85th minute, set up by Pedro Santos, to make it 3-0. Óscar Aranda scored the 4th goal for Famalicão from the penalty spot in the 95th minute as they extended the lead to make it 4-0. Miguel Patricio (42'), José Carlos (80') and Francisco Petrasso (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Famalicão 163 points stronger than Rio Ave. Every goal came after the interval. Rio Ave: three yellow cards. Rio Ave made five changes. José Carlos entered for Rio Ave at 65 minutes and later was booked. The substitution total for Famalicão was five. Pedro Santos scored in minute 80 and provided an assist following entry for Famalicão in the 60th minute. Óscar Aranda, on in the 83rd minute, scored two times in minutes 85, 95. Famalicão kept their opponents scoreless.