Across 16 recorded meetings back to 2012 the split is 8-4-4 in Moreirense's favour on wins, 27-18 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-2 in Primeira Liga. Against that, current ratings read 1440 and 1490, a 50-point margin, and the model splits the tie 38.5% / 27.5% / 34.1%.
No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 12.6%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 34 and 34 matches. Expected goals 1.09-1.41. Gil Vicente holds both halves of the profile — 0.97 against 0.72 for scoring, 1.01 against 1.07 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. It ended 0-1. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -60 and -10. Ratings sit 50 apart. The four component numbers read 0.72, 1.07, 0.97, 1.01. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The three outcomes sit within 11.0 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. Someone wins 72.6% of the time by this model. By expected share of the points: 52.2% and 47.8%. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Moreirense's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 8 conceded. Vitória SC were their latest opponents, away on 20 September: a 1-1 draw.
Moreirense visited Vitória SC on 20 September (Primeira Liga) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Marítimo travelled to face Moreirense (Primeira Liga) on 14 September. For Moreirense, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed. 0-4 was Moreirense's result against SL Benfica on 9 September (Primeira Liga), playing at home; Moreirense lost, with zero scored to four conceded. The 4 September fixture (Primeira Liga) paired Moreirense with Porto. Moreirense lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing away from home against Casa Pia (Primeira Liga), Moreirense finished 1-0 on 30 August. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition.
Before kickoff, Primeira Liga's results-based standings placed Moreirense 12th after seven matches and eight points.
Gil Vicente's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 5 conceded. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to Marítimo on 19 September.
On 19 September, Marítimo faced Gil Vicente in Primeira Liga: Gil Vicente drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. Primeira Liga, 13 September brought an away meeting with SL Benfica; Gil Vicente lost 1-3, a return of one goal scored and three conceded. Gil Vicente hosted Acad. Viseu on 6 September (Primeira Liga) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Famalicão hosted Gil Vicente (Primeira Liga) on 30 August. For Gil Vicente, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 2-0 was Gil Vicente's result against Casa Pia on 24 August (Primeira Liga), playing at home; Gil Vicente won, with two scored to zero conceded.
Before kickoff, Primeira Liga's results-based standings placed Gil Vicente 9th after six matches and eight points.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 away win for Gil Vicente on 7 February and a 2-0 home win for Gil Vicente on 29 August 2025.
After the match
Gil Vicente edged past Moreirense 1-0 on 9 October 2026. Walace opened the scoring from the penalty spot late on, in the 90th minute for Gil Vicente to make it 1-0. 7 players were booked, among them Ricardo Esgaio (17'), Andreas Lausen (56'), Manuel Mendonça (60'), Gil Martins (70'), Mohamed Kaba (71') and Gilberto Batista (75'). On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Gil Vicente are 50 points stronger than Moreirense. three yellow cards went to Moreirense. Moreirense: four substitutions. The card tally for Gil Vicente was four yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Gil Vicente. Mohamed Kaba was booked following entry for Gil Vicente in the 64th minute. Walace, on in the 83rd minute, scored in minute 90. A clean sheet for Gil Vicente.