The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2026: 1 to Famalicão, 1 to Alverca, 0 drawn, 1-1 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-0 in Primeira Liga. The present numbers are 1524 against 1492, and the model turns that into 51.3% / 24.6% / 24.1%.
Famalicão holds a 26.7-point edge on the next outcome. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 12.4%. Behind them are 42 and 42 rated matches. The higher rating belongs to the home side. 32 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Attack/defence pairs: 0.95/0.83 and 0.98/1.05. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +24 and -8. Between best and worst outcome there is 27.2 points of daylight. Famalicão carries the largest share, 51.3%. The underlying goal expectation is 1.47 for Famalicão, 1.10 for Alverca. The match finished 1-4. The higher-rated side expects 63.6% of the points; the other side 36.4%. Honours split: 0.98 forward for Alverca, 0.83 back for Famalicão.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Famalicão's previous five results comprised one win, three draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 4 conceded. Latest: a 4-0 win away to CD Nacional on 19 September.
Against CD Nacional in Primeira Liga, Famalicão scored four and conceded zero on 19 September; the away from home result was 4-0. Famalicão's at home game on 13 September (Primeira Liga) ended 1-1 against Sporting CP, with one goal for and one against. On 5 September, Amadora faced Famalicão in Primeira Liga: Famalicão drew 2-2 away from home, having scored two and conceded two. Primeira Liga, 30 August brought a home meeting with Gil Vicente; Famalicão drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Famalicão visited Santa Clara on 23 August (Primeira Liga) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded.
Before kickoff, Primeira Liga's results-based standings placed Famalicão 13th after seven matches and seven points.
seven goals for and seven against accompanied Alverca's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. On 19 September, Alverca recorded a 1-0 win hosting Rio Ave.
Rio Ave travelled to face Alverca (Primeira Liga) on 19 September. For Alverca, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 3-1 was Alverca's result against CD Nacional on 12 September (Primeira Liga), playing away from home; Alverca won, with three scored to one conceded. The 5 September fixture (Primeira Liga) paired Alverca with Braga. Alverca lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing at home against Santa Clara (Primeira Liga), Alverca finished 1-1 on 29 August. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 22 August: Alverca lost 1-3 against Sporting CP away from home in Primeira Liga, scoring one goal and allowing three.
Alverca: 10th, eight points, seven matches in the calculated Primeira Liga standings at kickoff.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 home win for Famalicão on 16 May and a 1-0 home win for Alverca on 4 January.
After the match
Alverca comfortably beat Famalicão 4-1 on 12 October 2026. Chiquinho opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for Alverca to make it 1-0. Víctor Rofino levelled it in the 39th minute for Famalicão, set up by Marcos Peña, to make it 1-1. Alverca regained the lead through Lucas Figueiredo 56 minutes into the game, set up by Diogo Spencer, to make it 2-1. Vivaldo Semedo added to the tally 77 minutes into the game for Alverca, set up by Matheus Mendes, to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Alverca extended the lead through André Vidigal from the penalty spot late on, in the 85th minute to make it 4-1. Pedro (11'), Víctor Rofino (13'), Francisco Chissumba (34'), Mathias De Amorin (37') and Diogo Spencer (45') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Famalicão slightly the stronger side, by 32 rating points over Alverca, even though it was Alverca who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Alverca only a 24.1% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. On current ratings the model puts Alverca at around 1.1 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Famalicão picked up three yellow cards. Famalicão: five substitutions. Alverca: two yellow cards. Alverca made five changes. André Vidigal entered for Alverca at 66 minutes and later scored in minute 85. After coming on for Alverca in minute 74, Vivaldo Semedo scored in minute 77.