Across 32 recorded meetings back to 2010 the split is 26-4-2 in SL Benfica's favour on wins, 69-12 on goals. The last was 2026, 3-0 in Primeira Liga. Today those sides rate 1688 and 1434, 254 apart, which resolves to 77.8% / 16.9% / 5.4%.
The tie closed out 2-0. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.55 and 0.89. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +188 and -66. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. SL Benfica is ahead on each half — 1.51 to 0.87 in attack, 0.76 to 1.14 in defence. The higher-rated side expects 86.3% of the points; the other side 13.7%. The single-scoreline output is 2-0. Attack/defence pairs: 1.51/0.76 and 0.87/1.14. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-0 at 10.4%. Between best and worst outcome there is 72.4 points of daylight. SL Benfica leads the distribution by 60.9 points over the draw. Someone wins 83.2% of the time by this model. 254 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 44 and 34 matches.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
SL Benfica: four wins and one defeat over five games; 13 goals scored, five conceded. Porto were their latest opponents, away on 20 September: a 3-1 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Moreirense on 9 September.
On 20 September, Porto faced SL Benfica in Primeira Liga: SL Benfica lost 1-3 away from home, having scored one and conceded three. Primeira Liga, 13 September brought a home meeting with Gil Vicente; SL Benfica won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. SL Benfica visited Moreirense on 9 September (Primeira Liga) and won 4-0; their goals totalled four, compared with zero conceded. Marítimo hosted SL Benfica (Primeira Liga) on 5 September. For SL Benfica, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 2-1 was SL Benfica's result against Estoril Praia on 31 August (Primeira Liga), playing at home; SL Benfica won, with two scored to one conceded.
Before kickoff, Primeira Liga's results-based standings placed SL Benfica 4th after seven matches and 16 points.
Vitória SC: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; three goals scored, four conceded. Moreirense were their latest opponents, at home on 20 September: a 1-1 draw.
On 20 September, Moreirense faced Vitória SC in Primeira Liga: Vitória SC drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. Primeira Liga, 12 September brought an away meeting with Acad. Viseu; Vitória SC lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Vitória SC hosted Casa Pia on 6 September (Primeira Liga) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Braga hosted Vitória SC (Primeira Liga) on 31 August. For Vitória SC, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-0 was Vitória SC's result against CD Nacional on 23 August (Primeira Liga), playing at home; Vitória SC won, with one scored to zero conceded.
Before kickoff, Primeira Liga's results-based standings placed Vitória SC 15th after seven matches and five points.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 3-0 home win for SL Benfica on 21 March and a 3-0 away win for SL Benfica on 1 November 2025.
After the match
SL Benfica beat Vitória SC 2-0 on 11 October 2026. Samuel Dahl opened the scoring in the 24th minute for SL Benfica, set up by Vangelis Pavlidis, to make it 1-0. Heorhii Sudakov added to the tally 75 minutes into the game for SL Benfica, set up by Claudio Echeverri, to make it 2-0. 7 players were booked, among them Anthony Strata (17'), Goncalo Nogueira (33'), Toni Borevković (50'), Leandro Barreiro Martins (52'), Tomas Araujo (55') and Samu (57'). The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have SL Benfica 254 points stronger than Vitória SC. SL Benfica won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 77.8%. The card tally for SL Benfica was two yellow cards. SL Benfica made five changes. Claudio Echeverri entered for SL Benfica at 61 minutes and later provided an assist. After coming on for SL Benfica in minute 73, Heorhii Sudakov scored in minute 75. five yellow cards went to Vitória SC. Vitória SC: five substitutions. A clean sheet for SL Benfica.