On record: 30 meetings from 2010, 66-39 on aggregate, 8 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-3 in Bundesliga. The live ratings are 1604 and 1662, giving 37.2% / 27.7% / 35.1%.
Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Stuttgart's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 49.0%. Win-or-lose totals 72.3%; the draw takes the rest. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 58 points. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-2. All three results are bunched inside 9.5 points. Attack/defence pairs: 1.62/1.22 and 1.54/1.01. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-2 highest at 6.6%. The xG line reads 2.43 to 2.53. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.62 to 1.54 says Leverkusen, 1.01 to 1.22 says Stuttgart. The leading two outcomes sit 2.1 points apart, which is not a real preference. Most likely single result is Leverkusen on 37.2%. The ratings draw on 56 and 47 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Result on the day: 2-4. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +104 and +162.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Leverkusen's previous five results comprised four wins and one defeat. Their goal totals were 13 scored and 9 conceded. 1. FC Nürnberg were their latest opponents, at home on 28 October: a 5-2 win.
On 28 October, 1. FC Nürnberg faced Leverkusen in DFB-Pokal: Leverkusen won 5-2 at home, having scored five and conceded two. Bundesliga, 25 October brought an away meeting with Hoffenheim; Leverkusen lost 0-3, a return of zero goals scored and three conceded. Leverkusen hosted Freiburg on 18 October (Bundesliga) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Mainz hosted Leverkusen (Bundesliga) on 10 October. For Leverkusen, the score was 4-3: four goals scored, three allowed. 2-0 was Leverkusen's result against RB Leipzig on 20 September (Bundesliga), playing at home; Leverkusen won, with two scored to zero conceded.
13 points in seven matches put Leverkusen 4th in the pre-match results-based Bundesliga standings.
Stuttgart's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 5 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 win away to SC Paderborn on 28 October; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Sl. Bratislava on 14 October.
Stuttgart visited SC Paderborn on 28 October (DFB-Pokal) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. M'gladbach travelled to face Stuttgart (Bundesliga) on 23 October. For Stuttgart, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 1-1 was Stuttgart's result against Atleti on 20 October (Champions League), playing at home; Stuttgart drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 17 October fixture (Bundesliga) paired Stuttgart with HSV. Stuttgart lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Sl. Bratislava (Champions League), Stuttgart finished 3-0 on 14 October. Their score comprised three goals, against zero from the opposition.
six points in seven matches put Stuttgart 15th in the pre-match results-based Bundesliga standings.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 3-1 home win for Stuttgart on 9 May and a 4-1 away win for Stuttgart on 10 January.
After the match
Stuttgart beat Leverkusen 4-2 on 31 October 2026. Ermedin Demirovic opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for Stuttgart to make it 1-0. Jamie Leweling added to the tally in the 22nd minute for Stuttgart to make it 2-0. Patrik Schick pulled one back in the 28th minute for Leverkusen, set up by Aleix García, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Stuttgart extended the lead through Bilal El Khannouss 51 minutes into the game, set up by Chris Führich, to make it 3-1. Ermedin Demirovic scored the 5th goal for Stuttgart 65 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Deniz Undav, to make it 4-1. With the 6th goal, Leverkusen reduced the deficit through Ibrahim Maza 79 minutes into the game, set up by Miguel Gutiérrez, to make it 2-4. 8 players were booked, among them Nicolás Ezequiel Fernández (17'), Luca Jaquez (40'), Facundo Medina (40'), Aleix García (40'), Julian Chabot (40') and Ibrahim Maza (53'). four yellow cards went to Leverkusen. Leverkusen: four substitutions. Stuttgart picked up four yellow cards. Stuttgart: five substitutions.