39 meetings sit in the record, first in 2011, aggregate 83-49. The latest was 2026, 3-2 in Bundesliga. The live ratings are 1865 and 1713, giving 67.6% / 20.4% / 12.0%.
The higher-rated side expects 77.7% of the points; the other side 22.3%. A 152-point spread sits between the two figures. The edge is split: Bayern scores at the higher rate (2.51 to 1.47), Dortmund concedes at the lower (0.79 to 0.99). Attack/defence pairs: 2.51/0.99 and 1.47/0.79. Bayern sits 47.2 points above the next most likely result. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 61 and 57 rated matches respectively. A 55.6-point range top to bottom. Point estimate: 2-1. Higher rating: the home side. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 6.3%. It ended 2-2. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Someone wins 79.6% of the time by this model. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +365 and +213. 67.6% goes to Bayern, the model's lean. The underlying goal expectation is 2.94 for Bayern, 1.96 for Dortmund.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Bayern's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 20 scored and 8 conceded, with no defeats. 1. FC Magdeburg were their latest opponents, at home on 28 October: a 6-1 win.
6-1 was Bayern's result against 1. FC Magdeburg on 28 October (DFB-Pokal), playing at home; Bayern won, with six scored to one conceded. The 25 October fixture (Bundesliga) paired Bayern with Freiburg. Bayern won 3-1 away from home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Arsenal (Champions League), Bayern finished 2-2 on 21 October. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 17 October: Bayern won 6-1 against RB Leipzig at home in Bundesliga, scoring six goals and allowing one. Against Viking in Champions League, Bayern scored three and conceded three on 13 October; the away from home result was 3-3.
17 points in seven matches put Bayern 1st in the pre-match results-based Bundesliga standings.
Dortmund came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding four. On 27 October, Dortmund recorded a 3-2 win hosting Bremen.
The 27 October fixture (DFB-Pokal) paired Dortmund with Bremen. Dortmund won 3-2 at home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Frankfurt (Bundesliga), Dortmund finished 1-0 on 24 October. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 20 October: Dortmund won 2-1 against Sabah FK away from home in Champions League, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Dortmund scored zero and conceded zero on 17 October; the away from home result was 0-0. Dortmund's away from home game on 14 October (Champions League) ended 0-1 against Bodø/Glimt, with zero goals for and one against.
Dortmund: 2nd, 17 points, seven matches in the calculated Bundesliga standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 3-2 away win for Bayern on 28 February and a 2-1 home win for Bayern on 18 October 2025.
After the match
Bayern and Dortmund drew 2-2 on 31 October 2026. Konrad Laimer opened the scoring in the 38th minute for Bayern to make it 1-0. Sehrou Guirassy levelled it 60 minutes into the game for Dortmund, set up by Carney Chukwuemeka, to make it 1-1. Bayern regained the lead through Dayot Upamecano 66 minutes into the game, set up by Harry Kane, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Dortmund drew level through Fábio Silva late on, in the 89th minute, set up by Konstantinos Karetsas, to make it 2-2. Jobe Bellingham (6'), Josip Stanišić (53') and Konrad Laimer (74') were booked. Bayern are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Champions League, the 2026/27 Bundesliga and the 2026/27 DFB-Pokal. Dortmund are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Champions League, the 2026/27 Bundesliga and the 2026/27 DFB-Pokal. Bayern: two yellow cards. three changes were recorded for Bayern. Josip Stanišić was booked following entry for Bayern in the 31st minute. Dortmund: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Dortmund. Konstantinos Karetsas, on in the 67th minute, provided an assist. Fábio Silva entered for Dortmund at 76 minutes and later scored in minute 89.