Prior record: 8-3-2 across 13 since 2019. Most recent 2026, 0-5 in DFB-Pokal. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1427 and 1435 — 8 points — for a 45.0% / 26.0% / 29.0% split.
Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 53.4% / 24.1% / 22.5%. That one did not come off. First to second is a 16.0-point step, Union Berlin over 1. FC Köln. It ended 1-1. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -73 and -65. Someone wins 74.0% of the time by this model. Point estimate: 1-2. Top of the distribution: Union Berlin, 45.0%. The higher rating expects 41.9% of the points, the lower 58.1%. The underlying goal expectation is 1.61 for Union Berlin, 2.28 for 1. FC Köln. Ratings sit 8 apart. Neither figure is thin: 44 and 44 matches respectively sit behind them. Higher rating: the away side. Raw profiles are 0.92 and 1.52 against 1.11 and 1.19. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 8.5%. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. Neither component contradicts the other: 1. FC Köln leads 1.11-0.92 forward and 1.19-1.52 back.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
two goals for and 13 against accompanied Union Berlin's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. On 27 October, Union Berlin recorded a 5-0 defeat visiting 1. FC Köln.
27 October: Union Berlin lost 0-5 against 1. FC Köln away from home in DFB-Pokal, scoring zero goals and allowing five. Against Augsburg in Bundesliga, Union Berlin scored one and conceded one on 24 October; the away from home result was 1-1. Union Berlin's at home game on 17 October (Bundesliga) ended 0-0 against Dortmund, with zero goals for and zero against. On 10 October, Elversberg faced Union Berlin in Bundesliga: Union Berlin won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. Bundesliga, 18 September brought an away meeting with Bayern; Union Berlin lost 0-7, a return of zero goals scored and seven conceded.
Union Berlin stood 17th in the results-based Bundesliga table before kickoff, with six points from seven matches.
1. FC Köln's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 4 conceded. Union Berlin were their latest opponents, at home on 27 October: a 5-0 win.
5-0 was 1. FC Köln's result against Union Berlin on 27 October (DFB-Pokal), playing at home; 1. FC Köln won, with five scored to zero conceded. The 24 October fixture (Bundesliga) paired 1. FC Köln with Schalke. 1. FC Köln drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Frankfurt (Bundesliga), 1. FC Köln finished 0-1 on 16 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 11 October: 1. FC Köln won 2-1 against M'gladbach at home in Bundesliga, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against HSV in Bundesliga, 1. FC Köln scored one and conceded two on 19 September; the away from home result was 1-2.
eight points in seven matches put 1. FC Köln 14th in the pre-match results-based Bundesliga standings.
The last two recorded meetings were a 5-0 home win for 1. FC Köln on 27 October and a 2-2 draw at Union Berlin on 2 May.
After the match
Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln drew 1-1 on 1 November 2026.