On file: 32 previous meetings dating to 2010, 44-59 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-0 in Bundesliga. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1542 and 1604 — 62 points — for a 36.4% / 27.9% / 35.7% split.
36.4% goes to Hoffenheim, the model's lean. Flat distribution — 2-2 tops it at just 6.5%. In absolute terms: Hoffenheim 1.31/1.21, Leverkusen 1.62/1.22 on attack and defence. The match finished 3-0. 72.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The higher-rated side expects 49.6% of the points; the other side 50.4%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Its rounded call is 2-2. The away side is rated higher. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.37 and 2.64. Versus the 1500 seed: +42 and +104. Only 0.7 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. Logged in advance of kickoff — 29.2% / 26.1% / 44.7%. The match did not follow it. A 62-point difference on the rating scale. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Neither figure is thin: 44 and 56 matches respectively sit behind them.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Hoffenheim's previous five results comprised two wins and three defeats. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 11 conceded. M'gladbach were their latest opponents, away on 18 October: a 2-1 win.
Against M'gladbach in Bundesliga, Hoffenheim scored two and conceded one on 18 October; the away from home result was 2-1. Hoffenheim's at home game on 10 October (Bundesliga) ended 2-3 against HSV, with two goals for and three against. On 20 September, SC Paderborn faced Hoffenheim in Bundesliga: Hoffenheim lost 1-3 away from home, having scored one and conceded three. Bundesliga, 12 September brought a home meeting with Stuttgart; Hoffenheim won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Hoffenheim hosted Dortmund on 5 September (Bundesliga) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded.
Before kickoff, Bundesliga's results-based standings placed Hoffenheim 14th after six matches and six points.
Leverkusen were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring 14 goals and conceding six. On 18 October, Leverkusen recorded a 2-1 win hosting Freiburg; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Union Berlin on 5 September.
Leverkusen's at home game on 18 October (Bundesliga) ended 2-1 against Freiburg, with two goals for and one against. On 10 October, Mainz faced Leverkusen in Bundesliga: Leverkusen won 4-3 away from home, having scored four and conceded three. Bundesliga, 20 September brought a home meeting with RB Leipzig; Leverkusen won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Leverkusen visited Augsburg on 12 September (Bundesliga) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Union Berlin travelled to face Leverkusen (Bundesliga) on 5 September. For Leverkusen, the score was 4-0: four goals scored, zero allowed.
Leverkusen stood 4th in the results-based Bundesliga table before kickoff, with 13 points from six matches.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-0 home win for Hoffenheim on 17 January and a 2-1 away win for Hoffenheim on 23 August 2025.
After the match
Hoffenheim comfortably beat Leverkusen 3-0 on 25 October 2026. Andrej Kramarić opened the scoring from the penalty spot 79 minutes into the game for Hoffenheim to make it 1-0. Alexander Prass added to the tally late on, in the 89th minute for Hoffenheim, set up by Andrej Kramarić, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Hoffenheim extended the lead through Max Moerstedt in the 96th minute to make it 3-0. Alexander Prass (90') was sent off. 8 players were booked, among them Nicolás Ezequiel Fernández (40'), Alexander Prass (45'), Patrik Schick (58'), Leon Avdullahu (67'), Facundo Medina (75') and Adam Daghim (82'). Our current Elo ratings make Leverkusen slightly the stronger side, by 62 rating points over Hoffenheim, even though it was Hoffenheim who won this one. Every goal came after the interval. Hoffenheim picked up three yellow cards and one red card. The substitution total for Hoffenheim was four. Andrej Kramarić, on in the 65th minute, scored in minute 79 and provided an assist. Max Moerstedt entered for Hoffenheim at 84 minutes and later scored in minute 96. Leverkusen: five yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Leverkusen. Loïc Bade was booked following entry for Leverkusen in the 64th minute. Hoffenheim kept their opponents scoreless.