Both components point the same way, toward RB Leipzig: 1.65 to 1.23 going forward, 1.10 to 1.33 going back. On rating it is 1640 against 1532, which the model resolves to 62.1% / 21.9% / 16.0%.
Outcomes span 46.1 points. The ratings draw on 47 and 24 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. A 40.2-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +140 and +32. By expected share of the points: 73.0% and 27.0%. Ratings sit 108 apart. The scoreline spread is even — 3-1 on 6.5% leads, but only just. The underlying goal expectation is 3.26 for RB Leipzig, 1.83 for Elversberg. Before kickoff our model had this at 56.1% / 23.5% / 20.5%. It landed. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. 78.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Higher rating: the home side. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 3-1. No scoreline clear 8% individually. The model's preferred outcome is RB Leipzig at 62.1%. Played and finished 4-0. In absolute terms: RB Leipzig 1.65/1.10, Elversberg 1.23/1.33 on attack and defence.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
nine goals for and 12 against accompanied RB Leipzig's two wins and three defeats across five outings. A 4-1 defeat away to Real Madrid (21 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 6-0 at home to Frankfurt on 10 October.
RB Leipzig's away from home game on 21 October (Champions League) ended 1-4 against Real Madrid, with one goal for and four against. On 17 October, Bayern faced RB Leipzig in Bundesliga: RB Leipzig lost 1-6 away from home, having scored one and conceded six. Champions League, 13 October brought a home meeting with PSV; RB Leipzig won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. RB Leipzig hosted Frankfurt on 10 October (Bundesliga) and won 6-0; their goals totalled six, compared with zero conceded. Leverkusen hosted RB Leipzig (Bundesliga) on 20 September. For RB Leipzig, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed.
RB Leipzig stood 7th in the results-based Bundesliga table before kickoff, with nine points from six matches.
Elversberg: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; nine goals scored, nine conceded. Latest: a 4-3 win at home to Augsburg on 17 October.
Against Augsburg in Bundesliga, Elversberg scored four and conceded three on 17 October; the at home result was 4-3. Elversberg's away from home game on 10 October (Bundesliga) ended 0-1 against Union Berlin, with zero goals for and one against. On 20 September, Schalke faced Elversberg in Bundesliga: Elversberg drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Bundesliga, 13 September brought a home meeting with Bayern; Elversberg lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Elversberg visited M'gladbach on 5 September (Bundesliga) and won 4-3; their goals totalled four, compared with three conceded.
Before kickoff, Bundesliga's results-based standings placed Elversberg 6th after six matches and ten points.
After the match
RB Leipzig overwhelmed Elversberg 4-0 on 24 October 2026. Tidiam Gomis opened the scoring 48 minutes into the game for RB Leipzig, set up by Antonio Nusa, to make it 1-0. Romulo Cruz added to the tally 66 minutes into the game for RB Leipzig, set up by Antonio Nusa, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, RB Leipzig extended the lead through Christoph Baumgartner late on, in the 84th minute, set up by Brajan Gruda, to make it 3-0. Romulo Cruz scored the 4th goal for RB Leipzig in the 94th minute as they extended the lead, set up by Abdoul Koné, to make it 4-0. Rocco Reitz (59') and Lasse Günther (74') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. RB Leipzig won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 62.1%. RB Leipzig picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for RB Leipzig was five. After coming on for RB Leipzig in minute 46, Romulo Cruz scored two times in minutes 66, 94. Brajan Gruda provided an assist following entry for RB Leipzig in the 62nd minute. Christoph Baumgartner, on in the 72nd minute, scored in minute 84. Abdoul Koné entered for RB Leipzig at 87 minutes and later provided an assist. Elversberg: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Elversberg. RB Leipzig conceded no goals.