On file: 22 previous meetings dating to 2010, 36-30 on goals. Last time: 2025, 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga. Today those sides rate 1435 and 1517, 82 apart, which resolves to 33.9% / 27.4% / 38.7%.
Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 9.8%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -65 and +17. The model gives 72.6% to someone winning. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Final score: 0-0. Both figures rest on decent samples, 44 and 494 matches. Most likely single result is Schalke on 38.7%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1. Neither component contradicts the other: 1. FC Köln leads 1.11-0.73 forward and 1.19-1.27 back. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The higher rating expects 52.4% of the points, the lower 47.6%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.11/1.19 and 0.73/1.27. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Schalke holds a 4.8-point edge on the next outcome. Top to bottom the spread is only 11.3 points. Expected goals come out at 2.09 to 1.17. 82 points of rating separation.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and nine against accompanied 1. FC Köln's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings. A 1-0 defeat away to Frankfurt (16 October) was their most recent result.
The 16 October fixture (Bundesliga) paired 1. FC Köln with Frankfurt. 1. FC Köln lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against M'gladbach (Bundesliga), 1. FC Köln finished 2-1 on 11 October. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 19 September: 1. FC Köln lost 1-2 against HSV away from home in Bundesliga, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Bremen in Bundesliga, 1. FC Köln scored one and conceded one on 12 September; the at home result was 1-1. 1. FC Köln's away from home game on 4 September (Bundesliga) ended 1-4 against Stuttgart, with one goal for and four against.
1. FC Köln: 12th, seven points, six matches in the calculated Bundesliga standings at kickoff.
Schalke's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 4 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Mainz were their latest opponents, at home on 17 October: a 1-0 defeat.
Against Mainz in Bundesliga, Schalke scored zero and conceded one on 17 October; the at home result was 0-1. Schalke's away from home game on 11 October (Bundesliga) ended 1-2 against Freiburg, with one goal for and two against. On 20 September, Elversberg faced Schalke in Bundesliga: Schalke drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Bundesliga, 11 September brought an away meeting with Union Berlin; Schalke won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Schalke hosted Bayern on 5 September (Bundesliga) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded.
Before kickoff, Bundesliga's results-based standings placed Schalke 15th after six matches and five points.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-0 home win for 1. FC Köln on 9 February 2025 and a 3-1 away win for 1. FC Köln on 1 September 2024.
After the match
1. FC Köln and Schalke could not be separated in a goalless draw on 24 October 2026. Tom Krauß (45'), Dina Ebimbe (71'), Luka Lochoshvili (81'), Vitalie Becker (83') and Hasan Kuruçay (89') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Schalke are 82 points stronger than 1. FC Köln. two yellow cards went to 1. FC Köln. 1. FC Köln: five substitutions. three yellow cards went to Schalke. The substitution total for Schalke was two. After coming on for Schalke in minute 43, Vitalie Becker was booked. 1. FC Köln conceded no goals. Schalke kept their opponents scoreless.