On record: 30 meetings from 2010, 43-39 on aggregate, 7 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-0 in Bundesliga. Currently 1496 against 1508 — a 44.5% / 26.2% / 29.4% split.
Result on the day: 2-3. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Honours split: 1.39 forward for Mainz, 1.22 back for Bremen. Top of the distribution: Mainz, 44.5%. Higher rating: the away side. The model gives 73.9% to someone winning. A 15.1-point margin separates the top two outcomes. In absolute terms: Mainz 1.39/1.26, Bremen 1.18/1.22 on attack and defence. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 2-2. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -4 and +8. 2-2 leads the scorelines at 6.9% — not a strong call. Goal expectation splits 2.52 to 2.01. Outcomes span 18.3 points. Before kickoff our model had this at 60.2% / 22.4% / 17.4%. The match did not follow it. Behind them are 44 and 44 rated matches. 12 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin. The higher rating expects 42.4% of the points, the lower 57.6%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
14 goals for and ten against accompanied Mainz's three wins and two defeats across five outings. On 17 October, Mainz recorded a 1-0 win visiting Schalke; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 away to HSV on 6 September.
Mainz's away from home game on 17 October (Bundesliga) ended 1-0 against Schalke, with one goal for and zero against. On 10 October, Leverkusen faced Mainz in Bundesliga: Mainz lost 3-4 at home, having scored three and conceded four. Bundesliga, 19 September brought an away meeting with M'gladbach; Mainz won 4-3, a return of four goals scored and three conceded. Mainz hosted Frankfurt on 12 September (Bundesliga) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded. HSV hosted Mainz (Bundesliga) on 6 September. For Mainz, the score was 5-0: five goals scored, zero allowed.
Mainz stood 5th in the results-based Bundesliga table before kickoff, with ten points from six matches.
Bremen's previous five results comprised two wins and three draws. Their goal totals were 11 scored and 8 conceded, with no defeats. Latest: a 2-2 draw at home to SC Paderborn on 17 October.
On 17 October, SC Paderborn faced Bremen in Bundesliga: Bremen drew 2-2 at home, having scored two and conceded two. Bundesliga, 9 October brought an away meeting with Dortmund; Bremen drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Bremen hosted Augsburg on 19 September (Bundesliga) and won 3-2; their goals totalled three, compared with two conceded. 1. FC Köln hosted Bremen (Bundesliga) on 12 September. For Bremen, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 3-1 was Bremen's result against RB Leipzig on 5 September (Bundesliga), playing at home; Bremen won, with three scored to one conceded.
nine points in six matches put Bremen 8th in the pre-match results-based Bundesliga standings.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-0 away win for Mainz on 15 March and a 1-1 draw at Mainz on 1 November 2025.
After the match
Bremen edged past Mainz 3-2 on 24 October 2026. Niclas Füllkrug opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 7 minutes for Bremen to make it 1-0. Niclas Füllkrug added to the tally from the penalty spot in the 25th minute for Bremen to make it 2-0. Anthony Caci pulled one back in the 33rd minute for Mainz, set up by Sheraldo Becker, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Bremen extended the lead through Ludovit Reis 61 minutes into the game, set up by Marco Grüll, to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Mainz reduced the deficit through Jae-sung Lee 63 minutes into the game, set up by Anthony Caci, to make it 2-3. Ludovit Reis (38'), Philipp Mwene (69'), Marco Grüll (88') and Alexander Schwolow (90') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Bremen only a 29.4% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. The card tally for Mainz was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Mainz. The card tally for Bremen was two yellow cards. Bremen made four changes.