22 meetings sit in the record, first in 2010, aggregate 33-37. The latest was 2026, 2-2 in Bundesliga. The live ratings are 1478 and 1404, giving 57.5% / 23.1% / 19.4%.
Top of the distribution: Frankfurt, 57.5%. Neither side holds both halves — Frankfurt scores at 1.53, 1. FC Köln concedes at 1.37. Result on the day: 1-0. Behind them are 49 and 41 rated matches. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. 76.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The three results cover 38.1 points. The xG line reads 3.12 to 2.02. Logged in advance of kickoff — 54.5% / 23.8% / 21.6%. It landed. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The gap between first and second outcome is 34.4 points, Frankfurt ahead of the draw. The single-scoreline output is 3-2. Attack/defence pairs: 1.53/1.45 and 1.03/1.37. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The scoreline spread is even — 3-2 on 6.0% leads, but only just. The higher rating expects 69.0% of the points, the lower 31.0%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -22 and -96.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Frankfurt's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 16 conceded. Latest: a 6-0 defeat away to RB Leipzig on 10 October.
Frankfurt visited RB Leipzig on 10 October (Bundesliga) and lost 0-6; their goals totalled zero, compared with six conceded. Freiburg travelled to face Frankfurt (Bundesliga) on 19 September. For Frankfurt, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 3-1 was Frankfurt's result against Mainz on 12 September (Bundesliga), playing away from home; Frankfurt won, with three scored to one conceded. The 6 September fixture (Bundesliga) paired Frankfurt with Augsburg. Frankfurt lost 1-4 at home, netting one goal while conceding four. Playing away from home against Union Berlin (Bundesliga), Frankfurt finished 3-3 on 29 August. Their score comprised three goals, against three from the opposition.
Before kickoff, Bundesliga's results-based standings placed Frankfurt 14th after five matches and five points.
1. FC Köln came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding ten. On 11 October, 1. FC Köln recorded a 2-1 win hosting M'gladbach.
1. FC Köln's at home game on 11 October (Bundesliga) ended 2-1 against M'gladbach, with two goals for and one against. On 19 September, HSV faced 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga: 1. FC Köln lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. Bundesliga, 12 September brought a home meeting with Bremen; 1. FC Köln drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. 1. FC Köln visited Stuttgart on 4 September (Bundesliga) and lost 1-4; their goals totalled one, compared with four conceded. Hoffenheim travelled to face 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga) on 29 August. For 1. FC Köln, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed.
1. FC Köln stood 10th in the results-based Bundesliga table before kickoff, with seven points from five matches.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-2 draw at Frankfurt on 5 April and a 4-3 away win for Frankfurt on 22 November 2025.
After the match
Frankfurt edged past 1. FC Köln 1-0 on 16 October 2026. Younes Ebnoutalib opened the scoring 77 minutes into the game for Frankfurt, set up by Noel Aseko Nkili, to make it 1-0. Mario Götze (24'), Lilian Brassier (39'), Ísak Jóhannesson (45') and Borna Sosa (90') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Frankfurt are 74 points stronger than 1. FC Köln. 57.5% is Frankfurt's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Frankfurt picked up two yellow cards. Frankfurt: three substitutions. Noel Aseko Nkili, on in the 71st minute, provided an assist. 1. FC Köln picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for 1. FC Köln was five. Frankfurt conceded no goals.