A 49.7% / 25.0% / 25.4% split off ratings of 1556 and 1535. Neither side holds both halves — Augsburg scores at 1.35, Elversberg concedes at 1.26.
0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Elversberg holds a 24.3-point edge on the next outcome. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Most likely single result is Elversberg on 49.7%. 21 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2015, 1-3 in DFB-Pokal. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The distribution runs from 49.7% down to 25.0%. 75.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +56 and +35. Attack/defence pairs: 1.26/1.26 and 1.35/1.27. The tie closed out 4-3. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 48.5% / 25.2% / 26.2%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. The higher-rated side expects 62.1% of the points; the other side 37.9%. No scoreline stands out; 2-2 only leads on 7.0%. The xG line reads 2.38 to 2.30. The ratings draw on 21 and 41 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled.
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Match Report
Before the match
Elversberg came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding eight. On 10 October, Elversberg recorded a 1-0 defeat visiting Union Berlin.
Elversberg's away from home game on 10 October (Bundesliga) ended 0-1 against Union Berlin, with zero goals for and one against. On 20 September, Schalke faced Elversberg in Bundesliga: Elversberg drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Bundesliga, 13 September brought a home meeting with Bayern; Elversberg lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Elversberg visited M'gladbach on 5 September (Bundesliga) and won 4-3; their goals totalled four, compared with three conceded. Leverkusen travelled to face Elversberg (Bundesliga) on 29 August. For Elversberg, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed.
Elversberg stood 10th in the results-based Bundesliga table before kickoff, with seven points from five matches.
13 goals for and eight against accompanied Augsburg's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings. On 10 October, Augsburg recorded a 2-2 draw hosting Bayern; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 away to Frankfurt on 6 September.
Bayern travelled to face Augsburg (Bundesliga) on 10 October. For Augsburg, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 2-3 was Augsburg's result against Bremen on 19 September (Bundesliga), playing away from home; Augsburg lost, with two scored to three conceded. The 12 September fixture (Bundesliga) paired Augsburg with Leverkusen. Augsburg drew 2-2 at home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Frankfurt (Bundesliga), Augsburg finished 4-1 on 6 September. Their score comprised four goals, against one from the opposition. 30 August: Augsburg won 3-0 against Schalke at home in Bundesliga, scoring three goals and allowing zero.
Augsburg: 6th, eight points, five matches in the calculated Bundesliga standings at kickoff.
Earlier results between these sides included a 3-1 away win for Augsburg on 7 August 2015.
After the match
Elversberg edged past Augsburg 4-3 on 17 October 2026. Elversberg won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.