The head-to-head counts 20 recorded meetings since 2010: 6 to HSV, 12 to Stuttgart, 2 drawn, 24-39 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-4 in Bundesliga. History aside, the live ratings of 1485 and 1650 drive a 23.8% / 24.5% / 51.6% distribution.
The away side is rated higher. Before kickoff our model had this at 21.8% / 23.9% / 54.3%. That one did not come off. Elo expected shares: 36.0% and 64.0%. The four component numbers read 0.98, 1.29, 1.54, 0.98. Stuttgart holds both halves of the profile — 1.54 against 0.98 for scoring, 0.98 against 1.29 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -15 and +150. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 165 points. Scorelines above 8%: 1. 75.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. 1-2 leads the scorelines at 8.4% — not a strong call. Spread across the three results is 27.8 points. The tie closed out 1-0. Top of the distribution: Stuttgart, 51.6%. Expected goals come out at 1.43 to 2.69.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
HSV came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding 15, failing to score in three of those games. On 10 October, HSV recorded a 3-2 win visiting Hoffenheim.
The 10 October fixture (Bundesliga) paired HSV with Hoffenheim. HSV won 3-2 away from home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing at home against 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga), HSV finished 2-1 on 19 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 13 September: HSV lost 0-5 against RB Leipzig away from home in Bundesliga, scoring zero goals and allowing five. Against Mainz in Bundesliga, HSV scored zero and conceded five on 6 September; the at home result was 0-5. HSV's away from home game on 29 August (Bundesliga) ended 0-2 against Dortmund, with zero goals for and two against.
HSV stood 13th in the results-based Bundesliga table before kickoff, with six points from five matches.
nine goals for and four against accompanied Stuttgart's three wins and two defeats across five outings. On 14 October, Stuttgart recorded a 3-0 win visiting Sl. Bratislava.
Sl. Bratislava hosted Stuttgart (Champions League) on 14 October. For Stuttgart, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 2-0 was Stuttgart's result against SC Paderborn on 10 October (Bundesliga), playing away from home; Stuttgart won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 19 September fixture (Bundesliga) paired Stuttgart with Dortmund. Stuttgart lost 0-1 at home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Hoffenheim (Bundesliga), Stuttgart finished 1-2 on 12 September. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 9 September: Stuttgart won 3-1 against Viking at home in Champions League, scoring three goals and allowing one.
Stuttgart: 12th, six points, five matches in the calculated Bundesliga standings at kickoff.
Previous meetings in our records: a 4-0 home win for Stuttgart on 12 April and a 2-1 home win for HSV on 30 November 2025.
After the match
HSV edged past Stuttgart 1-0 on 17 October 2026. Our current Elo ratings make Stuttgart clearly the stronger side, by 165 rating points over HSV, even though it was HSV who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives HSV only a 23.8% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.