The head-to-head counts 32 recorded meetings since 2010: 21 to Dortmund, 5 to Bremen, 6 drawn, 70-38 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 2-0 in Bundesliga. Currently 1677 against 1433 — a 77.0% / 17.2% / 5.8% split.
Dortmund sits 59.8 points above the next most likely result. The higher rating expects 85.6% of the points, the lower 14.4%. A 71.2-point range top to bottom. Higher rating: the home side. 2-1 leads the scorelines at 8.6% — not a strong call. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +177 and -67. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Raw profiles are 1.49 and 0.90 against 0.97 and 1.28. Final score: 2-2. Top of the distribution: Dortmund, 77.0%. Dortmund is ahead on each half — 1.49 to 0.97 in attack, 0.90 to 1.28 in defence. Win-or-lose totals 82.8%; the draw takes the rest. Distance between the ratings: 244 points, wide on this scale. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. The xG line reads 2.84 to 1.18. Neither figure is thin: 49 and 39 matches respectively sit behind them. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 79.0% / 16.3% / 4.6%. The result went the other way.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Dortmund's previous five results comprised five wins. Their goal totals were 15 scored and 4 conceded, keeping three clean sheets, with no defeats. Stuttgart were their latest opponents, away on 19 September: a 1-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 away to HEBC on 1 September.
On 19 September, Stuttgart faced Dortmund in Bundesliga: Dortmund won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Bundesliga, 12 September brought a home meeting with SC Paderborn; Dortmund won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded. Dortmund hosted Villarreal on 8 September (Champions League) and won 3-2; their goals totalled three, compared with two conceded. Hoffenheim hosted Dortmund (Bundesliga) on 5 September. For Dortmund, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 5-0 was Dortmund's result against HEBC on 1 September (DFB-Pokal), playing away from home; Dortmund won, with five scored to zero conceded.
Before kickoff, Bundesliga's results-based standings placed Dortmund 1st after four matches and 12 points.
11 goals for and eight against accompanied Bremen's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. On 19 September, Bremen recorded a 3-2 win hosting Augsburg; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Lüneburger SK Hansa on 22 August.
Bremen's at home game on 19 September (Bundesliga) ended 3-2 against Augsburg, with three goals for and two against. On 12 September, 1. FC Köln faced Bremen in Bundesliga: Bremen drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. Bundesliga, 5 September brought a home meeting with RB Leipzig; Bremen won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Bremen visited Freiburg on 30 August (Bundesliga) and lost 1-4; their goals totalled one, compared with four conceded. Lüneburger SK Hansa hosted Bremen (DFB-Pokal) on 22 August. For Bremen, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed.
Bremen: 8th, seven points, four matches in the calculated Bundesliga standings at kickoff.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-0 away win for Dortmund on 16 May and a 3-0 home win for Dortmund on 13 January.
After the match
Dortmund and Bremen drew 2-2 on 9 October 2026. Daniel Svensson opened the scoring 80 minutes into the game for Dortmund, set up by Fábio Silva, to make it 1-0. Nico Schlotterbeck added to the tally late on, in the 85th minute for Dortmund, set up by Joey Veerman, to make it 2-0. Ludovit Reis pulled one back late on, in the 88th minute for Bremen, set up by Oskar Wójcik, to make it 1-2. Niclas Füllkrug levelled it in the 92nd minute for Bremen, set up by Marco Grüll, to make it 2-2. Dariusz Stalmach (90'), Joey Veerman (90'), Felix Kalu Nmecha (90') and Daniel Thioune (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Dortmund 244 points stronger than Bremen. Every goal came after the interval. Dortmund are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in the 2025/26 Bundesliga, the 2026/27 Bundesliga, the 2026/27 DFB-Pokal and the 2026/27 Champions League. Bremen are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2025/26 Bundesliga, the 2026/27 DFB-Pokal and the 2026/27 Bundesliga. two yellow cards went to Dortmund. Dortmund: three substitutions. After coming on for Dortmund in minute 63, Fábio Silva provided an assist. Joey Veerman provided an assist and was booked following entry for Dortmund in the 72nd minute. Bremen picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Bremen was five. After coming on for Bremen in minute 19, Oskar Wójcik provided an assist. Dariusz Stalmach was booked following entry for Bremen in the 65th minute.