Prior record: 8-3-7 across 18 since 2010. Most recent 2026, 2-1 in Bundesliga. The live ratings are 1513 and 1432, giving 58.4% / 22.9% / 18.7%.
The higher rating expects 69.9% of the points, the lower 30.1%. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 7.3%. As a single number the model says 2-1. Both components point the same way, toward Hoffenheim: 1.32 to 0.92 going forward, 1.36 to 1.46 going back. Raw profiles are 1.32 and 1.36 against 0.92 and 1.46. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The ratings draw on 38 and 39 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The gap between first and second outcome is 35.5 points, Hoffenheim ahead of the draw. The home side is rated higher. Rating separation comes to 81 points. It ended 2-3. The three results cover 39.7 points. 77.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +13 and -68. On expected goals the model has it 2.86 against 1.69. Logged in advance of kickoff — 64.8% / 21.2% / 14.0%. The result went the other way.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Hoffenheim came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding ten. On 20 September, Hoffenheim recorded a 3-1 defeat visiting SC Paderborn; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Erzgebirge Aue on 22 August.
The 20 September fixture (Bundesliga) paired Hoffenheim with SC Paderborn. Hoffenheim lost 1-3 away from home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing at home against Stuttgart (Bundesliga), Hoffenheim finished 2-1 on 12 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 5 September: Hoffenheim lost 2-3 against Dortmund at home in Bundesliga, scoring two goals and allowing three. Against 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Hoffenheim scored two and conceded three on 29 August; the away from home result was 2-3. Hoffenheim's away from home game on 22 August (DFB-Pokal) ended 4-0 against Erzgebirge Aue, with four goals for and zero against.
Hoffenheim: 14th, three points, four matches in the calculated Bundesliga standings at kickoff.
HSV's previous five results comprised two wins and three defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 13 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. 1. FC Köln were their latest opponents, at home on 19 September: a 2-1 win; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Verl on 24 August.
Against 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, HSV scored two and conceded one on 19 September; the at home result was 2-1. HSV's away from home game on 13 September (Bundesliga) ended 0-5 against RB Leipzig, with zero goals for and five against. On 6 September, Mainz faced HSV in Bundesliga: HSV lost 0-5 at home, having scored zero and conceded five. Bundesliga, 29 August brought an away meeting with Dortmund; HSV lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. HSV visited Verl on 24 August (DFB-Pokal) and won 3-0; their goals totalled three, compared with zero conceded.
three points in four matches put HSV 16th in the pre-match results-based Bundesliga standings.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-1 away win for Hoffenheim on 25 April and a 4-1 home win for Hoffenheim on 13 December 2025.
After the match
HSV edged past Hoffenheim 3-2 on 10 October 2026. Yussuf Poulsen opened the scoring inside the first 12 minutes for HSV to make it 1-0. Sebastiaan Bornauw (an own goal) levelled it 51 minutes into the game for Hoffenheim to make it 1-1. Bambase Conte put Hoffenheim in front 53 minutes into the game, set up by Fisnik Asllani, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, HSV drew level through Terem Moffi late on, in the 83rd minute, set up by Miro Muheim, to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, HSV restored the lead through Miro Muheim in the 94th minute to make it 3-2. Bernardo (65') was sent off. Bernardo (55') and Leon Avdullahu (80') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Hoffenheim slightly the stronger side, by 81 rating points over HSV, even though it was HSV who won this one. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives HSV only an 18.7% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. The card tally for Hoffenheim was two yellow cards and one red card. Hoffenheim made five changes. HSV made five changes. Miro Muheim scored in minute 94 and provided an assist following entry for HSV in the 41st minute. Terem Moffi, on in the 76th minute, scored in minute 83. The lead changed hands twice in the scoring sequence. After trailing, HSV secured the win.