1436 against 1487 gives the model nothing to work with: 38.2% / 27.5% / 34.2%.
Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 8.2%. Union Berlin carries the largest share, 38.2%. Ratings sit 51 apart. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.75 and 2.08. The ratings draw on 38 and 15 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The three outcomes sit within 10.7 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -64 and -13. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Win-or-lose totals 72.4%; the draw takes the rest. Scorelines above 8%: 1. The single-scoreline output is 1-2. Union Berlin sits 4.0 points above the next most likely result. Both components point the same way, toward Elversberg: 1.01 to 0.97 going forward, 1.22 to 1.53 going back. Elo expected shares: 52.0% and 48.0%. Raw profiles are 0.97 and 1.53 against 1.01 and 1.22. The tie closed out 1-0. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 33.5% / 27.3% / 39.2%. That one did not come off. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Union Berlin: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; eight goals scored, 19 conceded. Bayern were their latest opponents, away on 18 September: a 7-0 defeat.
0-7 was Union Berlin's result against Bayern on 18 September (Bundesliga), playing away from home; Union Berlin lost, with zero scored to seven conceded. The 11 September fixture (Bundesliga) paired Union Berlin with Schalke. Union Berlin lost 1-3 at home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing away from home against Leverkusen (Bundesliga), Union Berlin finished 0-4 on 5 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against four from the opposition. 29 August: Union Berlin drew 3-3 against Frankfurt at home in Bundesliga, scoring three goals and allowing three. Against Eintracht Braunschweig in DFB-Pokal, Union Berlin scored four and conceded two on 23 August; the away from home result was 4-2.
one point in four matches put Union Berlin 17th in the pre-match results-based Bundesliga standings.
11 goals for and eight against accompanied Elversberg's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. A 0-0 draw away to Schalke (20 September) was their most recent result.
The 20 September fixture (Bundesliga) paired Elversberg with Schalke. Elversberg drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Bayern (Bundesliga), Elversberg finished 1-2 on 13 September. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 5 September: Elversberg won 4-3 against M'gladbach away from home in Bundesliga, scoring four goals and allowing three. Against Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Elversberg scored three and conceded two on 29 August; the at home result was 3-2. Elversberg's away from home game on 22 August (DFB-Pokal) ended 3-1 against MSV Duisburg, with three goals for and one against.
Elversberg: 8th, seven points, four matches in the calculated Bundesliga standings at kickoff.
After the match
Union Berlin edged past Elversberg 1-0 on 10 October 2026. Livan Burcu opened the scoring late on, in the 81st minute for Union Berlin to make it 1-0. Janik Haberer (7'), Tim Skarke (21') and Maurice Krattenmacher (90') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Elversberg slightly the stronger side, by 51 rating points over Union Berlin, even though it was Union Berlin who won this one. two yellow cards went to Union Berlin. Union Berlin: five substitutions. After coming on for Union Berlin in minute 58, Livan Burcu scored in minute 81. one yellow card went to Elversberg. Elversberg: five substitutions. Maurice Krattenmacher was booked following entry for Elversberg in the 59th minute. Union Berlin conceded no goals.