On file: 22 previous meetings dating to 2010, 33-21 on goals. Last time: 2023, 4-0 in Bundesliga. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1549 and 1572 — 23 points — for a 42.8% / 26.5% / 30.7% split.
Neither component contradicts the other: Freiburg leads 1.40-0.86 forward and 1.13-1.54 back. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +49 and +72. A decisive result carries 73.5% against 26.5% for the draw. Distance between the ratings: 23 points, narrow on this scale. Attack/defence pairs: 1.40/1.13 and 0.86/1.54. Before kickoff our model had this at 37.8% / 27.6% / 34.6%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Most likely single result is Freiburg on 42.8%. The tie closed out 2-1. Its point estimate is 3-1. The underlying goal expectation is 3.19 for Freiburg, 1.31 for Schalke. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 3-1 on 7.9%. The three results cover 16.3 points. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 38 and 485 rated matches respectively. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Freiburg were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring 17 goals and conceding four. A 2-2 draw away to Frankfurt (19 September) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to M'gladbach on 12 September.
Freiburg's away from home game on 19 September (Bundesliga) ended 2-2 against Frankfurt, with two goals for and two against. On 12 September, M'gladbach faced Freiburg in Bundesliga: Freiburg won 5-0 at home, having scored five and conceded zero. Bundesliga, 5 September brought an away meeting with SC Paderborn; Freiburg won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Freiburg hosted Bremen on 30 August (Bundesliga) and won 4-1; their goals totalled four, compared with one conceded. Fortuna Düsseldorf hosted Freiburg (DFB-Pokal) on 23 August. For Freiburg, the score was 5-1: five goals scored, one allowed.
Freiburg: 3rd, ten points, four matches in the calculated Bundesliga standings at kickoff.
eight goals for and six against accompanied Schalke's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. A 0-0 draw at home to Elversberg (20 September) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 5-2 away to Hallescher FC on 24 August.
Bundesliga, 20 September brought a home meeting with Elversberg; Schalke drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Schalke visited Union Berlin on 11 September (Bundesliga) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded. Bayern travelled to face Schalke (Bundesliga) on 5 September. For Schalke, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 0-3 was Schalke's result against Augsburg on 30 August (Bundesliga), playing away from home; Schalke lost, with zero scored to three conceded. The 24 August fixture (DFB-Pokal) paired Schalke with Hallescher FC. Schalke won 5-2 away from home, netting five goals while conceding two.
Schalke stood 13th in the results-based Bundesliga table before kickoff, with five points from four matches.
The last two recorded meetings were a 4-0 home win for Freiburg on 23 April 2023 and a 2-0 away win for Freiburg on 30 October 2022.
After the match
Freiburg edged past Schalke 2-1 on 11 October 2026. Maximilian Eggestein opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for Freiburg to make it 1-0. Adrian Gantenbein levelled it in the 30th minute for Schalke to make it 1-1. Freiburg regained the lead through Keisuke Goto late on, in the 85th minute, set up by Vincenzo Grifo, to make it 2-1. Yuito Suzuki (64') was sent off. Yuito Suzuki (49'), Matthias Ginter (58') and Hwang Heechan (87') were booked. Freiburg are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in the 2025/26 Bundesliga, the 2026/27 DFB-Pokal and the 2026/27 Bundesliga. two yellow cards and one red card went to Freiburg. Freiburg: five substitutions. Keisuke Goto, on in the 69th minute, scored in minute 85. Vincenzo Grifo entered for Freiburg at 83 minutes and later provided an assist. Schalke: one yellow card. Schalke made five changes. Hwang Heechan entered for Schalke at 79 minutes and later was booked.