Across 3 recorded meetings back to 2014 the split is 0-1-2 from SC Paderborn's side on wins, 2-4 on goals. The last was 2023, 1-2 in DFB-Pokal. Today those sides rate 1567 and 1619, 52 apart, which resolves to 38.1% / 27.5% / 34.3%.
Expected goals sit at 2.59 against 2.70. Stuttgart's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 48.1%. Behind them are 102 and 39 rated matches. The model gives 72.4% to someone winning. The scoreline spread is even — 2-2 on 6.2% leads, but only just. Neither side holds both halves — SC Paderborn scores at 1.51, Stuttgart concedes at 1.15. A 3.8-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. The model's preferred outcome is SC Paderborn at 38.1%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The forecast we stored before the match was 47.3% / 25.5% / 27.2%. The match did not follow it. Raw profiles are 1.51 and 1.35 against 1.47 and 1.15. The match finished 0-2. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 52 points.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
seven goals for and seven against accompanied SC Paderborn's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. On 20 September, SC Paderborn recorded a 3-1 win hosting Hoffenheim.
Bundesliga, 20 September brought a home meeting with Hoffenheim; SC Paderborn won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. SC Paderborn visited Dortmund on 12 September (Bundesliga) and lost 0-3; their goals totalled zero, compared with three conceded. Freiburg travelled to face SC Paderborn (Bundesliga) on 5 September. For SC Paderborn, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 0-0 was SC Paderborn's result against Mainz on 29 August (Bundesliga), playing away from home; SC Paderborn drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 23 August fixture (DFB-Pokal) paired SC Paderborn with Phönix Lübeck. SC Paderborn won 4-2 away from home, netting four goals while conceding two.
SC Paderborn: 12th, four points, four matches in the calculated Bundesliga standings at kickoff.
nine goals for and ten against accompanied Stuttgart's two wins and three defeats across five outings. On 19 September, Stuttgart recorded a 1-0 defeat hosting Dortmund; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to 1. FC Köln on 4 September.
Dortmund travelled to face Stuttgart (Bundesliga) on 19 September. For Stuttgart, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-2 was Stuttgart's result against Hoffenheim on 12 September (Bundesliga), playing away from home; Stuttgart lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 9 September fixture (Champions League) paired Stuttgart with Viking. Stuttgart won 3-1 at home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing at home against 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga), Stuttgart finished 4-1 on 4 September. Their score comprised four goals, against one from the opposition. 28 August: Stuttgart lost 1-5 against Bayern away from home in Bundesliga, scoring one goal and allowing five.
Stuttgart: 15th, three points, four matches in the calculated Bundesliga standings at kickoff.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 away win for Stuttgart on 31 January 2023 and a 2-1 away win for Stuttgart on 23 May 2015.
After the match
Stuttgart beat SC Paderborn 2-0 on 10 October 2026. Julian Chabot opened the scoring in the 25th minute for Stuttgart, set up by Angelo Stiller, to make it 1-0. Chris Führich added to the tally late on, in the 83rd minute for Stuttgart, set up by Angelo Stiller, to make it 2-0. Marvin Pieringer (45') was booked. SC Paderborn picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for SC Paderborn was five. Stuttgart made five changes. Stuttgart finished with a clean sheet.