On file: 20 previous meetings dating to 2012, 26-26 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-3 in La Liga. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1514 and 1477 — 37 points — for a 52.0% / 24.4% / 23.5% split.
Versus the 1500 seed: +14 and -23. Raw profiles are 1.09 and 1.11 against 0.89 and 0.84. Honours split: 1.09 forward for Rayo Vallecano, 0.84 back for Celta. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The model's preferred outcome is Rayo Vallecano at 52.0%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.2%. xG: 1.37 to 1.33. Neither figure is thin: 49 and 49 matches respectively sit behind them. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 48.9% / 25.2% / 26.0%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. A 27.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. A 28.5-point range top to bottom. The rating gap itself is 37 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Win-or-lose totals 75.5%; the draw takes the rest. Higher rating: the home side. Result on the day: 3-0. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Its point estimate is 1-1. The higher rating expects 64.3% of the points, the lower 35.7%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
seven goals for and eight against accompanied Rayo Vallecano's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings. On 27 October, Rayo Vallecano recorded a 3-2 win visiting Recreativo Huelva.
27 October: Rayo Vallecano won 3-2 against Recreativo Huelva away from home in Copa del Rey, scoring three goals and allowing two. Against Elche in La Liga, Rayo Vallecano scored zero and conceded three on 24 October; the at home result was 0-3. Rayo Vallecano's away from home game on 19 October (La Liga) ended 1-1 against Getafe, with one goal for and one against. On 19 September, Osasuna faced Rayo Vallecano in La Liga: Rayo Vallecano drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. La Liga, 15 September brought a home meeting with Espanyol; Rayo Vallecano won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded.
Rayo Vallecano: 17th, nine points, nine matches in the calculated La Liga standings at kickoff.
Celta's previous five results comprised two wins and three draws. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 2 conceded, keeping three clean sheets, with no defeats. Real Betis were their latest opponents, at home on 25 October: a 0-0 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Santander on 19 September.
Against Real Betis in La Liga, Celta scored zero and conceded zero on 25 October; the at home result was 0-0. Celta's at home game on 18 October (La Liga) ended 2-1 against Alavés, with two goals for and one against. On 11 October, Elche faced Celta in La Liga: Celta drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. La Liga, 19 September brought a home meeting with Santander; Celta won 5-0, a return of five goals scored and zero conceded. Celta hosted Málaga on 13 September (La Liga) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded.
Before kickoff, La Liga's results-based standings placed Celta 9th after ten matches and 12 points.
Previous meetings in our records: a 3-0 home win for Celta on 18 January and a 1-1 draw at Rayo Vallecano on 21 September 2025.
After the match
Rayo Vallecano comfortably beat Celta 3-0 on 31 October 2026. Jorge de Frutos opened the scoring in the 36th minute for Rayo Vallecano, set up by Sergio Camello, to make it 1-0. Jorge de Frutos added to the tally 55 minutes into the game for Rayo Vallecano, set up by Andrei Rațiu, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Rayo Vallecano extended the lead through Unai López 73 minutes into the game, set up by Gnangoro Bouare, to make it 3-0. Unai López (26'), Gnangoro Bouare (72') and Williot Swedberg (82') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Rayo Vallecano are 37 points stronger than Celta. Rayo Vallecano: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Rayo Vallecano. Gnangoro Bouare entered for Rayo Vallecano at 64 minutes and later provided an assist and was booked. one yellow card went to Celta. The substitution total for Celta was five. Williot Swedberg was booked following entry for Celta in the 61st minute. A clean sheet for Rayo Vallecano.