Across 31 recorded meetings back to 2010 the split is 10-4-17 from Getafe's side on wins, 30-42 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-1 in La Liga. History aside, the live ratings of 1479 and 1493 drive a 44.2% / 26.2% / 29.6% distribution.
14 points of rating separation. One edge each: scoring to Sevilla FC (1.04 v 0.73), conceding to Getafe (0.91 v 1.15). 1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.8% — not a strong call. Behind them are 50 and 50 rated matches. xG: 1.25 to 1.28. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -21 and -7. The model gives 73.8% to someone winning. Its point estimate is 1-1. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. A 14.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The distribution runs from 44.2% down to 26.2%. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 44.9% / 26.0% / 29.0%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Top of the distribution: Getafe, 44.2%. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Raw profiles are 0.73 and 0.91 against 1.04 and 1.15. The match finished 3-1. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Getafe's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 10 conceded. Latest: a 3-2 win away to Lebrijana on 29 October.
Getafe visited Lebrijana on 29 October (Copa del Rey) and won 3-2; their goals totalled three, compared with two conceded. Athletic hosted Getafe (La Liga) on 25 October. For Getafe, the score was 0-4: zero goals scored, four allowed. 1-1 was Getafe's result against Rayo Vallecano on 19 October (La Liga), playing at home; Getafe drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 10 October fixture (La Liga) paired Getafe with Barça. Getafe lost 0-3 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing at home against Málaga (La Liga), Getafe finished 1-0 on 20 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition.
Before kickoff, La Liga's results-based standings placed Getafe 18th after ten matches and nine points.
ten goals for and ten against accompanied Sevilla FC's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. A 3-0 win away to Hortaleza (29 October) was their most recent result.
29 October: Sevilla FC won 3-0 against Hortaleza away from home in Copa del Rey, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against Osasuna in La Liga, Sevilla FC scored two and conceded zero on 26 October; the at home result was 2-0. Sevilla FC's away from home game on 18 October (La Liga) ended 1-4 against Real Madrid, with one goal for and four against. On 12 October, Levante faced Sevilla FC in La Liga: Sevilla FC drew 3-3 away from home, having scored three and conceded three. La Liga, 19 September brought a home meeting with Barça; Sevilla FC lost 1-3, a return of one goal scored and three conceded.
Sevilla FC: 6th, 17 points, ten matches in the calculated La Liga standings at kickoff.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 away win for Sevilla FC on 22 February and a 2-1 away win for Getafe on 25 August 2025.
After the match
Getafe beat Sevilla FC 3-1 on 1 November 2026. Gabriel Suazo (27') was booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Sevilla FC just 14 rating points ahead of Getafe, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. one yellow card went to Sevilla FC. Sevilla FC: one substitution.