Prior record: 14-2-2 across 18 since 2016. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in La Liga. The live ratings are 1812 and 1440, giving 85.0% / 14.0% / 1.0%.
No scoreline stands out; 4-1 only leads on 6.9%. Final score: 6-1. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Its point estimate is 4-1. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 85.2% / 13.8% / 1.0%. It landed. 86.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Neither component contradicts the other: Barça leads 2.42-0.96 forward and 0.94-1.24 back. Barça's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 92.5%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +312 and -60. Distance between the ratings: 372 points, wide on this scale. Most and least likely outcomes are 84.0 points apart. Barça sits 71.0 points above the next most likely result. Neither figure is thin: 64 and 49 matches respectively sit behind them. Raw profiles are 2.42 and 0.94 against 0.96 and 1.24. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Most likely single result is Barça on 85.0%. The underlying goal expectation is 4.44 for Barça, 1.23 for Alavés. The home side is rated higher.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Barça: three wins and two defeats over five games; 15 goals scored, nine conceded. Real Madrid were their latest opponents, at home on 25 October: a 2-1 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 5-2 away to Real Betis on 17 October.
Playing at home against Real Madrid (La Liga), Barça finished 1-2 on 25 October. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 20 October: Barça lost 2-4 against PSG away from home in Champions League, scoring two goals and allowing four. Against Real Betis in La Liga, Barça scored five and conceded two on 17 October; the away from home result was 5-2. Barça's away from home game on 13 October (Champions League) ended 4-1 against Galatasaray, with four goals for and one against. On 10 October, Getafe faced Barça in La Liga: Barça won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero.
Before kickoff, La Liga's results-based standings placed Barça 2nd after ten matches and 27 points.
Alavés's previous five results comprised two draws and three defeats. Their goal totals were 3 scored and 6 conceded, with no wins. Málaga were their latest opponents, at home on 23 October: a 1-1 draw.
On 23 October, Málaga faced Alavés in La Liga: Alavés drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. La Liga, 18 October brought an away meeting with Celta; Alavés lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Alavés hosted Atleti on 10 October (La Liga) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Athletic hosted Alavés (La Liga) on 19 September. For Alavés, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 0-1 was Alavés's result against Valencia on 15 September (La Liga), playing at home; Alavés lost, with zero scored to one conceded.
12 points in ten matches put Alavés 7th in the pre-match results-based La Liga standings.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-0 home win for Alavés on 13 May and a 3-1 home win for Barça on 29 November 2025.
After the match
Barça overwhelmed Alavés 6-1 on 31 October 2026. Raphinha opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Barça, set up by Fermín López, to make it 1-0. Fermín López added to the tally in the 23rd minute for Barça, set up by Lamine Yamal, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Barça extended the lead through Raphinha in the 41st minute, set up by Fermín López, to make it 3-0. Lamine Yamal scored the 4th goal for Barça 46 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by João Cancelo, to make it 4-0. Barça extended the lead 64 minutes into the game; the match's 5th goal came through Lamine Yamal, set up by Gabriel Jesus, to make it 5-0. The 6th goal came late on, in the 81st minute from Anthony Gordon for Barça, who extended the lead, set up by Rodri, to make it 6-0. Mariano Díaz got one back late on, in the 84th minute for Alavés to make it 1-6. Carlos Benavidez (27'), Pedri (40'), Ángel Pérez (45'), João Cancelo (57') and Pablo Ibáñez Tébar (60') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Barça 372 points stronger than Alavés. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Barça won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 85%. Barça: two yellow cards. Barça made five changes. Gabriel Jesus provided an assist following entry for Barça in the 62nd minute. Anthony Gordon, on in the 74th minute, scored in minute 81. three yellow cards went to Alavés. Alavés: five substitutions. After coming on for Alavés in minute 55, Pablo Ibáñez Tébar was booked. Mariano Díaz scored in minute 84 following entry for Alavés in the 74th minute.